Tuesday, March 10, 2015

[RUSL] update

As you can see from the backlink(s), my model for RUSL played out pretty well so far.  I called 27-28 range as top and then a breakdown to follow.  That model is still on track.  The log scale chart shows at this point that a small 3 wave pullback has occurred from the peak but it has resulted in a DDT along the top rail of the overarching down-trending channel.  So far that represents a loss of about 30% from the peak.  Said differently, had you paid attention to my warnings you would have saved 30% of your total bet compared to someone who does not try to time the market.  That's not small change and my primary view is that it is not over.  I believe that the red model is in play.  Having said that, nobody knows the future and the wise captain knows when the tide is turning.  Don't fight the tide!  Instead, learn the tides and use them to your advantage.  Go out to sea on the ebb and return to port on the flow.  Otherwise you spend a lot of fuel fighting tides.

What I cannot be sure about is whether or not the big collapse into mid December was a 3rd or a 3rd, 4th and 5th.  I assume the former.  Again red model is primary but I think the dollar will peak soon and this will help the Ruble so I will not be surprised to see the blue path occur.


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