Thursday, March 26, 2015

[UVXY] threat model

UVXY has been moving up of late and it does seem to be forming a motive wave right now.  But given what came before, I think there is a good chance that this could be a 4th wave forming, not actually part of the real reversal in UVXY.  I think market buy the dippers have seen dips before and they always recover.  I think this is why UVXY has been moving up so slowly in response to DJIA weakness.  We should be seeing 15-20% up days but we aren't because the moment of recognition - 3rd wave down in the DJIA - has not occurred yet.  When it does, UVXY will likely make up for lost time as everyone scrambles for crash insurance.

In any case, what I see from the bottom of W3 is a 3 wave move up and then a 3 wave move to a lower low and now a 5 wave move back up to the level of the prior 4th.  Call me crazy but that smells like an expanded flat 4th wave, blue 4 in the model below.

So I would expect it to peak very soon and then make 5 waves down to double bottom as shown.  Buy that dip on UVXY!

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