Sunday, March 15, 2015

[$COMPX] update

In the backlink I provided this model.

One thing I don't like about this is that it can be counted as a rising wedge.   If wedges are 3s or Cs, that suggests that the recent top was not the top.  Of course, WX is so new that I have no idea what if any special cases might exist but let's just tuck it away for now that, while a pull back to about 4600 seems in the cards (the level of the prior 4th and the 38.2 fib), there is at least some evidence (W3) that another wave up is due.  It could be a deep vee second that forms a DDT with a short stroke 5th.  Now, if we can get 5 waves down as shown in green above (instead of just 3) then we can make more downward predictions from there.

Of course, long term model predictions, as I have written many times before, are mainly for bragging rights.  The short game is where the money is made.  Drive for show, putt for dough.  So zooming in, I think 5 down likely finished on the 13th and that we will likely have an a-b-c retracement either red or blue per below.  That would either make it to the prior 4th and the 38.2 or fill the gap to the 61.8 while kissing the center tine of Andrew's pitchfork (not drawn in below) from below.  There is really no way of knowing which it could be but since  UVXY looks like it could be ready to put in a 5th wave down, expect the higher bounce of the two, and it could even go higher and form some owl ears.

In fact, the move to the top rail of the rising wedge to 5k might just have been A, the move back since then wave B and then an even higher high for a W3 throwover.  It does concern me that the wedge did not throw over.  That would have been the way I would have ended such a long bull market.

For now, I like JNUG and commodities better than UVXY.  In fact, I always do prefer to go long on something if possible.  By the way, next week is quad witching.  Don't be surprised to see lots of volatility.

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