Friday, March 20, 2015

[JNUG] threat model through the eyes of [JDST] and [UUP]

The US fed and other central banks have essentially broken the marketplace.  One of the purposes of a market is price discovery.  What we have now is price fixing and we are now at the stage of the Ponzi where it will continue to occur until the market overwhelms the con men running the show. 

What this leads to is massive volatility.  Each time they relinquish control a little bit, the market reacts wildly in the direction opposite to what they had intended.  Then they step in again to "fix" things again and the market doesn't just react a little or slowly as they would hope, the market then panics in the other direction.  This results in wild volatility and is a clear sign that the days of the monetary system are numbered.  Something will eventually have to be done which allows stability in the market place as it is not the true value of the goods and services which are fluctuating; it is the value of the fake money supply which they are priced in which is volatile.  It is much harder to run a business, to plan to have any CONFIDENCE when this kind of volatility is happening.  The herd will eventually demand change.

Bottom line: the smart trader never takes anything for granted at this point but rather becomes hyper paranoid until we have our 5 waves up pattern established in miners and so far it is not established.  To see this, first look at the mirror of JNUG which is JDST.  It is not contaminated by the broken reverse split calcs (that TDAmeritrade never fixed despite email to me that they would...).  Below is that chart.

Of particular note should be that HT within the red "diamond".  HT are penultimate folks.  So the odds favor this move down by JDST to be part of the internal structure of a massive HT as shown.  If this model is correct, JDST will very soon (today?) find support and then reverse upwards in 3 waves to kiss or break out the top rail in an e wave as shown.  After that a very big fall will occur for JDST and JNUG will benefit accordingly.  If this model is correct, most people will just sit through much of the JDST bounce/JNUG dip and then give up on JNUG right when JDST is peaking.

So the play here is simple: watch JDST.  It will either find support at that lower rail or it won't.  If it does, sell JNUG and then wait to see if support is lost.  Hold JNUG below that JDST rail only.

Here is a close up of the current wave down in JDST.  It suggests a bit more selling but very soon it will have to either break down that lower rail or bounce on it.  Rest assured that the herd knows it is there.  Given the fairly clear HT count of b, I give it high odds of holding support.  So I will be selling JNUG into that support and then buying JNUG back if JDST breaks that support down.

Now, look at similar indicators for UUP.  Those big down sweeping moves did not result in lower lows and that makes me wonder greatly if they are pointers higher as shown.  UUP might only work its way back up to form a DDT but that would be enough to make JNUG give back most of its recent gains.

So now you know the things that I am looking at which are completely different than the things others are looking at.  We now have clear levels of support to trade against - no gut feel needed.  All you have to do is watch these two things and they will tell you if JNUG is about to give most or all of it back up.  In that case, folks, you don't just bail on JNUG.  You go long on JDST.  60% is 60% and it comes with clear trigger levels as well!

So just wait to see what the chart does.  Don't jump the gun on anything.

1 comment:

Anonymous said...

Thank you for the most timely update, I have to admit I was getting lost in the count.

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