Friday, March 27, 2015

Seeking Alpha article notices bullish nonconfirmation in [FCX]

Freeport McMoRan (ticker: FCX) is a major commodity producer.  A seeking Alpha author noted that the recent dividend slash was not accompanied by a stock collapse.  Well, maybe that is because the shares have already collapsed.

Still, it might be a bit early to call the bottom according to my WX indicator.  Then again, WX can indicate a 3 or a C so maybe the recent kiss of the 78.6 fib will in fact be the bottom.  Let's hope so for the sake of oil, gold and silver and of course "Doctor copper".

What I am sure about, however, is that commodities are far closer to a major bottom than to a major top.  Still, in the worst case FCX could still be cut another 33% from here and perhaps even up to 66% for a very short time (spike bottom).  The high volatility in FCX is due to high leverage so that should not be discounted when gambling in these shares.  The Altman Z-Score for this is currently a distressing 0.72.

The FCX chart suggests to me one of two things.  Either:
  1. EWI is wrong about their view that the recent bottom in gold and silver was only A of C or
  2. There is going to be a massive "flash crash" in asset prices very, very soon.
In other words, I do see the potential for FCX to fall yet another 66% from current levels (down to as low as $6) but in order for this to happen I think it would have to transpire quickly - slow moves do not generate herd panic.  The frog will not move if the heat of the pot of water is turned up slowly, it is rapid change per unit time that tends to register in the brain as fear.

Zooming in, my primary count suggests more southing and the usual suspects are shown in red and green.  I have to say, if it were not for my proprietary W3 indicator shown within the blue circle, I would be tempted to have called the move to the low $16 range the bottom.  Until I see a clear 5 wave move up from that point, which clearly has not happened yet, I have to count the moves on the FCX chart since that w3 as being corrective.  Please see my COPX chart for more info in a separate post.

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