Monday, March 30, 2015

[JNUG] has now pulled back to the 61.8 fib

The current move down is likely either a w3 which will soon bounce up to perhaps the 50 fib and kiss it from below OR it is the full pullback from $23.   Conventional wisdom count is that the wave up from March 11th was wave 1 up.  If that is correct then this pullback to exactly the 61.8 could be the a-b-c pullback which will lead to higher highs.

Nobody knows the future and I am now tracking both potentially bullish and potentially bearish models for JNUG.  The key for me right now is the formation of this falling wedge which happens to be exactly at the 61.8% fib.  So I bought JNUG speculatively at $17.05 and will hope for at least a buck of a bounce from here regardless of whether there is more southing to be done before the real bottom is in; it's unlikely to go straight down.  Note that the 38.2 fib bounce of the 10 minute model (lowest chart of this post) starting from the top of the b wave would be to ~$19 and that would also fill the gap.

So, when the bounce comes I will determine if it is a small scale a-b-c or whether it has legs and that will give me more clues as to whether I dump for a small profit or I average up if this breaks out of the 50 fib in 5 waves.

I'll say it again because I know it is so easy to forget: drive for show, putt for dough. In other words, it's all good and fine to have a top level model that attempts to predict things a few days, weeks, months or years in advance but I make most of my money and avoid most of the risk by watching the intraday moves like this one and then moving only when there is a high odds setup like this one appears to be.   I'm not saying this won't eventually go lower; I don't know if it will or not and neither does anyone else.  But I do think some kind of bounce is likely here and it could either be a 3 wave small one or something much much bigger.

Zooming in a bit, here is a good shot of what looks like a potential WC

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