Monday, March 31, 2014

Oh oh. The con men might just have screwed the pooch. You decide.

Look.   There are bad people running the government.  They say that they do things to help us but in reality it is to help themselves control us.  They start wars, kill people and do all manner of horrible things.  But it is very, very rare that they make such big mistakes that they are caught red handed.

Well, they may have just fucked up in the worst possible way.  While I will be the first to admit that this is still all very preliminary, please, do not roll your eyes until you read all the facts.

There is now some interesting evidence that indicates that the Malaysian airlines flight 370 that was lost track of on March 8th might have been diverted to Diego Garcia island which is owned by the Brits and with significant military presence by the US.  Yes, the two leading western partners in crime.  By the way, that wiki on Diego Garcia indicates that it has been used as a prisoner detention center before.   Also, the following military operations are stationed on the island according to this document from the military's own web site.  Red highlights are mine:

Personnel Support Detachment Diego Garcia (PSD)
Provides personnel and pay support for all Navy personnel.

Detachment 2, 18th Space Surveillance Squadron
An Air Force Space Command unit that conducts deep space surveillance using the only Ground based Electro-Optical Deep Space Surveillance System (GEODSS) in the southern Hemisphere.

Detachment 22nd Space Operations Squadron
One of nine remote tracking stations comprising the Air Force Satellite Control Network, this command provides telemetry, tracking and commanding of DOD satellites.

13th Pacific Air Forces Detachment 1
Maintains a Southwest Asia forward operating location under CENTCOM and PACOM.  Provides facilities, munitions, vehicles, aerospace ground equipment, communications, bare base assets and aviation fuel to sustain contingency and wartime sortie operations.

 Tenant Commands

Naval Computer and Telecommunications Area Master Station Pacific Det (NCTAMS)

Manages, operates and maintains telecommunications systems and facilities for the Navy and Defense Information Systems Agency.  Provides telecommunications support to fleet, joint and allied forces in the Indian Ocean Theater.

U.S. Navy Maritime Preposition Ships, Squadron TWO
A logistics component under the Military Sealift Command that supplies equipment in support of operations.

Afloat Preposition Ships Squadron FOUR
A logistics component of the Military Sealift Command and provides ships as an operational asset to the United States 3rd Army.

Military Sealift Command Office (MSCO)
MSCO provides logistical support to the COMPSRON TWO and ASPRON FOUR ships forward deployed to Diego Garcia.

Naval Media Center (NMC) Detachment
As Diego Garcia’s American Forces Network outlet, NMC provides three radio and three television stations for continuous stateside news, information and entertainment of island personnel.

Detachment 1, 630th AMSS (AMC)
Provides passenger and cargo air movement supporting Diego Garcia and Indian Ocean operations.

Island commands

U.S. Navy Support Facility
     U.S. Navy Support Facility Diego Garcia is the host command on the island.  In this role, it is responsible for maintaining and operating facilities for the provision of services and materials in support of personnel in afloat units forward deployed to Indian Ocean and to tenant and shore activities.  This support includes sea, air and surface freight and flight operations as well as berthing, dining and recreational activities. 

Headquarters, British Forces BIOT
     As the United Kingdom owns the island there are British representatives on Diego Garcia responsible for law and order.  The British representative, or Brit Rep, acts as the Commanding Officer for Headquarters, British Forces BIOT, as well as the local magistrate and judge for all legal matters dealing with British law.  Under his cognizance are the British customs personnel, Royal Overseas Police Officers and a compliment of Royal Marines, who patrol and protect the entire BIOT.

So, Diego Garcia is not some technological backwater.  It is a very important military installation, well funded and well equipped and it's runway can easily land the 777 equipment which was used for Malaysia 370.

In this article, the author claims that a "selfie" was transmitted from someone who was supposedly on the plane, an IBM engineer out of Malaysia named Philip WoodHere is Mr. Wood's linkedin profile.  Mr. Wood is indeed stationed in Malaysia and so it is not crazy that he could have been on that flight.  Here is the original picture that I downloaded.  It is not important that the picture is black as you will see below:

The story is that the image was posted at a public blogging site named 4chan.  Here is the link to that post:  The picture posted with the following text:

“I have been held hostage by unknown military personal after my flight was hijacked (blindfolded). I work for IBM and I have managed to hide my cellphone in my ass during the hijack. I have been separated from the rest of the passengers and I am in a cell. My name is Philip Wood. I think I have been drugged as well and cannot think clearly.”

OK, OK, I know this sounds like "help I have been kidnapped and am being held captive in a Chinese laundry".   And I also know that pranksters have access to all of the links and info that I am about to share so all of this could be an elaborate hoax.  Someone might just think it is funny to mock those who are now presumed dead on this flight.  Hey, it does happen.  People, especially young people with tech skills can sometimes be very cruel.

Still, what is more fantastic and unbelievable: that all of the combined governments of the world and the NSA which has the ability to monitor every cell call and email and text and everything else completely lost track of a huge commercial aircraft or that those who brought down 3 steel frame buildings into their own footprints at the speed of gravity on 9/11 are up to their old tricks again?

Does it pass the sniff test after 9/11 that any large commercial airliner in the world could ever go missing like this again?  Ever?  Really??  Sorry, I just think something is wrong with that.  If this was a bona fide hijacking done by terrorists, military jets would have been scrambled as soon as it went off RADAR and the transponder was shut off.  Satellite resources would have immediately been re-tasked in order to keep track of the situation (including the type under control of Diego Garcia personnel).  Yet when you read the accounts of the search efforts, it seems like a bunch of clueless idiots are running the show.  They run to and fro as if putting on a public spectacle more than conducting a real search operation.  Their actions would make it seem like we have no global tracking and control facilities whatsoever.  In fact, it smells a bit like a wild goose chase.  If you are incredulous, I don't blame you.  But wise people try to be fair and focus on ALL of the facts, not just the "feel good" ones.  The global governments are just not as helpless as the official story would have us think. 

So, let's see where the available data takes us.  First off, was there even anyone named Philip Wood on the aircraft when it disappeared??  According to this web site, yes there was:

Here is the EXIF data that I extracted from the JPEG myself using Jeffery's online EXIF reader.  All JPEGs have this metadata (data about data) embedded into them.  As you can see, it was taken from an Iphone 5 without flash on March 18 2014 which is 10 full days after the flight went missing:

If you plug the above long/lat coordinates (-7.316197, 72.426544) into Google Earth you get the picture below which is none other than Garcia Diego island, home of US intelligence and military operations for many many years now.  What better place to hide a hijacked aircraft and its passengers?

Zooming in you get the following image.  The location circled in red is where a lot of the military people are housed.  Note that it is conveniently located at the opposite end of the island from where the picture was supposedly taken.  This is not conclusive of anything, just another data point.

Here is a close up of the red circle along with a map that I got from the University of Maryland that has an outpost college there for military members.  I only provide this reference so that you can be sure of my claim that the cell phone picture was taken on the opposite side of the island, as far away as you can get from the people who live there.  This is important because, having lived on an island myself for 2+ years (Guam), it is hard to keep anything secret and the best way to do so is physical separation:

Next (below) is a close up of where the picture was supposedly taken.  Notice that it comes from within a building, not in the middle of some field, etc.  I have used GPS extensively as a boating aficionado and  I can tell you that modern GPS is accurate to within 10 feet.  Differential GPS is now available to every cell phone via the WAAS (Wide Area Augmentation System).  This is what provides the awesome accuracy.  When I use my own GPS from within my house, it places me inside the house and in the proper corner of the house where my office is.

If they are holding the people captive then the building would have to be big enough to contain all 227 passengers and 12 crew.  As you can see, that is a very large building @ 210 feet on the long side and (not shown but measured by me nonetheless) 113 on the short side.  That's 23,730 square feet of prisoner storage space.  Yes, it is at least possible that everyone from flight 370 is being "detained" there.

OK, so next question, could the plane even have made it to an island in the middle of nowhere?  In order to answer this, below is the distance between Kuala Lampur International where the flight took off to Garcia Diego island:

Could that flight possibly have made it that far without refueling (since there is no place to refuel and that aircraft does not support in flight refueling)?  In fact, yes it could.  According to the Wiki, the original destination was to be Beijing Capital International Airport.  The distance of that trip is 2733 miles.

Of course, the pilot would know that, wouldn't he, given this article which says "Diego Garcia, a remote island in the middle of the Indian Ocean with a runway long enough to land a Boeing 777 was programmed into the home flight simulator of the pilot of the missing Malaysia Airlines plane..."

Also, the same article says that there were eye witnesses on a local Maldives island who might have seen the plane.  Apparently, they don't see a lot of large commercial jetliners out their way so it's news when they do see one:

"According to the Daily Mail, residents of the Kuda Huvadhoo island, the Maldives, reported seeing a plane on the morning of the disappearance of MH370. Eyewitness told the British tabloid: “I’ve never seen a jet flying so low over our island before. We’ve seen seaplanes, but I’m sure that this was not one of those. I could even make out the doors on the plane clearly. It’s not just me either, several other residents have reported seeing the exact same thing. Some people got out of their houses to see what was causing the tremendous noise too.”

Data AGAINST the conspiracy theory:
The same msword document listed above from the island's US military powers says this:

"Private Internet access is available through C&W for a one-time $20 fee and at a cost of 2 cents a minute from 0001-0449 and 4 cents per minute from 0600-2400 for a dial-up connection."

So it does not wash that someone could just land there and then begin using the Internet.  Of course, with many wireless services, all you have to do is sign up online.  In other words, when you try to access, they redirect you to a web page that gives sign up info.  This would probably require a credit card and hostages are normally relieved of their wallets.  Here is the Cable and Wireless web site for Diego Garcia.  As to mobile cellular data it says:

How it Works
Mobile Data is activated and managed using SMS. All SMS messages to manage mobile data are free
• Send an SMS to 189 with the message “Data 100” or “Data 200” to activate the mobile data service. You will receive a confirmation message.
• Send an SMS to 189 with the message “Usage” to check your mobile data balance. You will receive an SMS advising the remaining data allowance in MB and remaining days.

OK, according to this, it might be possible to remotely activate the service using the cell phone.  The one question that needs to be answer is whether or not you can get any access whatsoever without having some advance knowledge that a captive would not have.  For example, the web site says:
You need to configure the data settings on your handset to use mobile data. Click here for typical data settings.

This seems to indicate that you would have had to access the Internet some other way in order to get the required settings.  But if that is true then why have activation over the cell phone itself?  Either the sign up process is 100% do-able via cell phone or it would seem to be of little use.  I emailed their customer support to determine the answer.

Another thing: why not just call home and tell your wife that you are OK?  Well, it's possible that cell calls and internet are billed differently.  From the same military base document it says:

     "The commercial/private phone system is operated by Cable & Wireless, the local British phone company.  Phone cards must be purchased to call off the island.  Stateside phone cards will not work.  Phone cards come in increments of $10, $20, $50 and $100 and may be purchased at Cable & Wireless.  When your card gets low you can have it updated at the C&W office.  Phone calls range from 40 to 60 cents a minute depending on time of day. "

This clearly indicates that the only way to call off island is to purchase prepaid phone cards.  So it would not be possible for a hostage to do this.


In any case, this story is now making the rounds all over the Internet which of course is not good news for Mr.  Wood if he is indeed a guest of the US government at Diego Garcia.  The criminal government's best bet now is to either buy them off and move them out of the area via submarine or kill them off and feed them to the fishes.  The decision might be made on a case by case basis but in general I think that keeping 200+ mouths shut on this matter and telling everyone they can never contact their relatives again seems like a high risk bet.

Of course, all of this leaves one wondering "why".  Perhaps it was another false flag operation but gone wrong this time.  Perhaps they were going to cause a terror event but now that this leaked out they might just have to make do with damage control.  If this is more than a hoax, the cutting torches on Diego Garcia will probably be running late into the evenings trying to get rid of evidence.

Why do I even bother bringing this story up?  Simply because it is the kind of desperation move that I would expect from a dying criminal organization that is desperate to start a war somewhere ANYWHERE before their beloved banks collapse.  Banks love war because it means someone has to finance the machinery and that's just good business for corrupt bankers.  Always has been and likely always will be.

Whether you are rolling your eyes at the thought that this might be real or whether you are interested in learning more about it so you can make up your own mind, I think we can all agree on one thing at the very least as follows:

If this is not a hoax then there is no insulating anyone in the US government from this. If it is proven to be treachery, there is no credible argument that Obama and all his criminal friends did not know and approve of this operation well in advance.  There is no way this happens as a result of a few corrupt rogues gone bad and operating in a vacuum.  IF this can be proven to have happened, then Obama must be tried for high treason and then jailed FOR LIFE at the very least.  Or, if they try his case in Texas, they should give him the death penalty for high treason.

Again, if this story is obviously a ridiculous joke then I guess nobody should have a problem with agreeing on the above punishment because it could never happen, right?  If this conspiracy theory turned out to be true then would be the single biggest act of government treason and treachery ever recorded in the USA.  Something of that magnitude has the potential to start a civil war if the criminals are not punished commensurate with the deed.  We would have to hunt down and jail or kill every single person who was involved.  We would need to set an example for the ages.  No presidential pardons or special treatment of any kind.  Life in jail or death.

I hope this is something that we can all agree on right here, right now.

PAAS update: the model is looking good so far

Follow this link and then scroll all the way down to check out my high level model of PAAS.  In short, the model expected a pull back to the $12.50-$12.90 range which is about the level of the prior 4th.  In fact, it recently hit the 50% fib and found support there at $12.65 and has now bounced to $13.06.  While my recent model rough price target has been hit, it was just a coarse estimation.  I never go just by price alone.  I always value the wave count as the highest order technical indicator while also keeping in mind that there can be more than one interpretation of the wave count.

Still, the count looks pretty clean here and so I have to begin with the assumption that the current bounce will peter out after 5-3-5 waves have played out into wave 4 of C.  I give it a day or two to do that.  Once I see a-b-c I will sell my USLV.

After that I would normally swing short on ZSL for one final wave down as shown in red above but only IFF the chart fell back below the b wave of 4.  Waiting for this trigger would ensure that I was not really in the middle of a 5 wave move up.  Why?  Because if it was going to be a 5 wave motive move then a-b-c would really be 1-2-3.  In that case, the next wave should be 4 and 4 can never go into the region of 1.  If it does you are either inside a triangle or it was a corrective wave, not a motive one.  I do not think it is going to be very difficult to tell the difference because of how clean these waves have been.

At the same time, if I ever see the chart put in more than a 5-3-5 (a-b-c) move up then I will have to assume that the USLV trip to the 50% fib was the end of the C wave.  In that case I would quickly switch back to being as long metals and miners as my leverage will allow.

Below is GDX.  As you can see, it just kissed the 61.8 fib while also being at significant support.  Note that the wave count on GDX leaves room for interpretation.  
  • The move to the 23.6 fib could have been a small 5 wave movement down.  It is possible that this was the A wave.  Then a tiny B wave up and then 5 red waves down to finish off the C wave.  So it would be very foolish to assume that "for sure" we need 1 more wave down to finish this C wave.  The markets are always tricky at these transition points with the goal of screwing as many people a possible out of catching the exact bottom.
  • On the other hand, wave 1 could have been the move off the bottom from $20->21 and change.  Then a small pull back followed by a gap up into wave 3 at only $22!!  That means the prior 4th wave is only 21.30ish in this case!!  This is a compelling prospect because it would really screw the non EW technicians would think fib levels are the end all be all.  If the 61.8% fib fails to hold they will not only sell any shares they might have bought but they will also go short, probably on high leverage thinking a lower low is coming.  But then all of a sudden they would be hit with a MASSIVE gap up as the 3rd wave takes off.  It will pay to keep all of these possibilities in mind as they represent 90% of the likely things to happen over the next 2 weeks.
Note: the only thing that could really pop metals right now would be some significant new fear about war.  I have written many times that stocks and metals will at some point diverge and that war is often the cause of this.

XOM Update

Here is my first post ever on Exxon-Mobile.  It was created on March 3rd of this year.  Now that the month is closing out, I figured it was time for an update.  In short, this is making snail's headway toward its retest of the upper rail from below.  It cannot get there before the entire market is ready to collapse, it all has to happen in unison don't you know.  This is not a conspiracy theory.  It's herding theory.  When the herd reaches the banks of the crocodile-filled river, those getting there first don't just plunge in.  They wait for many of the followers to show up.  Until then, they mill about on the banks scanning the water and sniffing the air. 

Look at that perfect 3 wave pattern that is playing back up into wave 2 of the new bear market that XOM has already very likely entered (even if only EW followers can see it).  To the rest of the world this thing has just created a higher high and so it is time to go "all in".  Jump in is more like it.  Jump into the river and into the waiting jaws of the crocodiles.

The first confirmation of this ending diagonal breakdown was the break back into the channel.  The second confirmation is coming right up - the back test from below (assuming it fails to break out again).  The 3rd will be the killer because the break down below the lower rail is likely going to happen on a 3rd wave down. That should be Prechter's "point of recognition".

Sunday, March 30, 2014

TVIX update: something significant will likely happen soon.

Last week I bailed on TVIX because of all the sideways action.  I had ridden through several peaks and valleys waiting for it to break out but it still needed to waste time.   Well I think the time wasting is very, very near over.  I cannot say for sure if the next move is up or down.  Metals, I think, have put in a near term bottom and they have been trading with the broader markets more often than not.  So that would presume that we need one more move up in the major markets before the final collapse sets in.

Then again, PCLN, CMG and others that I have blogged about as being near Ponzi peaks have already begun to pull back hard.  In the very short term, the markets appear confused which is so often the state of things near the peak.  And make no mistake about it, this peak is going to be one for the record books.  Prechter has some charts here that will help you understand just how big of a financial bubble the world is in.  As I have warned many times, the bail outs were not fixes.  It was more akin to a man who lost money to the mob in a card game running home to ask mom and dad for their life savings in order to avoid him getting killed.  Instead of paying his debts off (because they did not have enough to do so), he goes back and tries to win it back in the games.  This time when he loses (the game is rigged don't you know), mom and dad cannot help because they already shot their wad the last time.

This is the state of the Federal Reserve market shock absorber fund: tapped the heck out.  Contrary to what many think, there will be no new round of bail outs.  The fed knows that if they do it again there will be riots and the con men themselves might get killed in the streets.  This is not hyperbole.  Bankers are looking at civil unrest, civil wars, secession requests and actual secessions, etc. and they know the jig is up.  They model herd sentiment and they follow it using supercomputers.  They know that one wrong move and the herd will stampede right over the top of them. In order to avoid receiving fair punishment for all the global damage they have done, the con men are now trying to put on a show of being respectable and conservative again.  They are not the only ones.

In any case, TVIX is about to hit the vertex of support and resistance. It will have to break down or break out.  If it takes a direction with a gap on Monday (either up or down) you can trade in that direction using tight stops just inside the triangle.  I will note in the chart below that one can count 5 perfect rail bumps with a tiny, tiny throwover on the 5th bump.  This could have just lowered the lower rail and given the chart a slight bit more time to decide.  Alternatively, it could have just been A of C of 5.  If so, then C will probably be at least as large as A and perhaps even lower than black 1.

We should be only days from a resolution on this.

More signs of the rise of economic conservatism.

Look at some of the amazing hyper-conservative things that are happening now that the credit has run out.  This one blows me away:

This next one is in many ways even more important: 

Whereas GA politicos figured out the will of the people and got in front of it, CT politicos still think they can mandate away people’s constitutional rights.  This is a huge mistake.  The time for ordering the people around like serfs is over for this cycle.  The nanny state libs have had a good run of it but there are now too many signs telling me the pendulum is swinging away from them.  When the growth of credit stops and then reverses itself, as it always eventually must, the people gain power and the state loses power.  Consider this truth: if the state has the ability to pay for its “programs” and its enforcer/centurions using debt then it does not need approval by the taxpayer.  The state grows more powerful in spite of the taxpayer.  But when the credit begins to fail as it is doing right now  the state has to collect more taxes to keep up the old games and that is much more difficult to do without getting dragged into the streets.

If CT tries to crush this 4th amendment rebellion I suspect it will turn into something of a running gunfight.  The dissenters must know that the state already knows who they are and where they live.  Not registering does not provide them any anonymity because anytime you buy something with any electronic form, the government takes note of it.  Not registering and not giving up their guns willingly forces the state to either back down or to decide to use force, probably even lethal force against people who are not harming anyone.   If the state goes after these people then someone will be killed in short order and that person will be martyred.  What would follow would not be pretty.   Yes, we are now at that stage of the debt Ponzi collapse.  One bad miscalculation here could toss a match into a tinderbox. 

I say again, economic liberalism is a lean toward consumption on credit.  Do not mistake DEM and GOP for economic liberal and conservative!  They might be the same but I consider Bush an economic liberal.  You can tell because the debt goes up dramatically on their watch while the privacy and freedoms of the citizens go down.  There is a definite link between the two.  With rising debt, the economic liberals basically outsource to the state everyone’s personal responsibilities in all matters.  The state becomes overseer and the people sign up for slavery in the hopes of having a better life if they sell their souls. 

Economic conservatism is a lean toward savings and a consumption model based on cash and carry.  If you are not racking up debt then you have to live within your means.  It is very expensive to outsource your personal responsibilities; you have to pick and choose carefully what makes sense to hire out to others.  Economic conservatives think that police should remain as an emergency service or a service that tracks down those who already committed crimes.   They do not believe that the state can effectively protect them and don’t want to pay for the bill even if the state could promise safety. 

Unfortunately we are now at the point where the odds of getting killed by police are 8x higher than being killed by a terrorist.  If you let the state take out loans to pay themselves it is pretty obvious that they will abuse it over time and the state will become the terrorist right up until the people band together, figure it out, and just say no.
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