Sunday, August 31, 2014

Ted Cruz warmongering???

I'm very disappointed in Ted Cruz.  He is suddenly pandering to the warmongers in talking about "bombing ISIS back into the stone age".  Damn it, Cruz, what part of "protect our borders and don't be the world's policeman" didn't you understand?  If those under threat of ISIS cannot gather up the guts to defend themselves then they deserve whatever they get.  It has been proven over and over and over again that nobody can successfully fight the battles of someone else who won't fight for themselves.  You just waste a lot of time, energy, money and lives and then as soon as you try to hand off control, those under your protection just fold again.

ISIS is no threat to the US.  Even if they put a dirty bomb on Wall St, it would still not be an existential threat to us.  More than likely it would assure their eventual destruction.  But until they attack us, let them go kill their own.  Let those people live in the fear that they allowed to happen by virtue of either being disarmed or of being too cowardly to stand up for themselves.  This is not our battle and we do not need to make it ours.  The world is already dangerously close to global war because of the collapse of the global debt Ponzi and we would be much better off just minding our own very messed up business at this point.

Where are we with peak credit - update.

In this post I provided a couple of models for how the 5th wave of the consumer credit chart could pan out.  But in re-reading it I see that I didn't pay enough attention to the timelines.  In short, I didn't recognize how badly the reporting of consumer credit data was lagging at the FRED website.   It is in fact several months behind. 

So this new understanding makes the second model listed in my previous post as much less likely and gives a lot more weight to the first model.  I've updated that model with vertical time markers using an extrapolated time scale.  The model itself has not changed, only the understanding that we are a LOT closer to the peak than I had thought.  In fact, the peak could already be in as far as anyone outside the fed knows.  They are holding back data on us so that they can plan their spin. 

I think the entire holiday season is going to be a total bust.  I do not think the mood of the herd is in any way upbeat or jolly.  I expect it to be a disaster no matter what reason they choose to blame it on.

China needs a puppet leader in Hong Kong.

Hong Kong is a cash cow.  China let the Hongkongese run open loop as if it were a free country after the British handover and the people there took full advantage of that perceived freedom in order to grow their little territory into a world financial powerhouse and economic dynamo.  But China is a total debt Ponzi and so the Chinese leadership now needs to find other sources of credit in order to prop them up.  The Chinese shadow banking economy is truly scary, worse than the USAs per unit capita.  So today we read that China is now trying to control Hong Kong elections in a very overt and unsophisticated way.  The justification??  Free elections in Hong Kong would create a "chaotic society".

You might be surprised to hear that I, as a devout libertarian, totally agree with the Chinese leadership!  That's right, free elections, freedom to choose, freedom of any kind in Hong Kong WILL create chaos.  But not for Hong Kong!  The chaos will be in mainland China where the long con debt Ponzi is on its last legs.  Without being able to control the financial operations of prosperous and rich Hongkongese, China will meet its inevitable fate sooner rather than later.  But make no mistake: taking control of Hong Kong's financial markets will in no way save China from a catastrophic collapse just like the federal reserve taking control of the US financial markets will not prevent it in the US.  Sucking the value out of Hong Kong and harvesting the Chinese investment in freedom there can delay the inevitable economic collapse of China but not prevent it.  Yes, the Chinese bee keepers created a free colony of busy bees in Hong Kong but it was always for the benefit of China, something to be harvested when needed.

Interestingly, the Hongkongese are fully awake and aware of the threat which the Chinese ruling represents.  They are like fire ants scrambling out of their mounds after someone kicked it (or bees coming out of the hive when they hear footsteps of the bee keeper approaching).  They are organized and they are pissed and they are in no way fooled or deluded as to what main land leadership is saying.  In fact, the mainland isn't even trying to disguise their purpose very much.  Li Feng, deputy bureaucrat in charge of imagined powers in Beijing said, "These rights come from laws, they don't come from the sky....  Many Hong Kong people have wasted a lot of time discussing things that are not appropriate and aren't discussing things that are appropriate."

So basically, any "rights" or freedom that the Hongkongese might be so foolish as to claim for themselves basically live and die at the pleasure of the communist leadership in China.  Oh and by the way, people should only discuss topics that we want them to talk about, everything else is inappropriate.  This is part of their "right" of freedom of speech I guess.

This should be interesting.  China thinks it is in control but the Hongkongese are clearly aware of what is at stake and what the pain points will be for the mainland.  If they want to come and take over the HK financial district, then perhaps the best solution is to shut down that which China wants thus making it all pain and no gain to come and get it.  This is what the people over there are saying right now.

When will people, no matter where they live or what color their skin might be, finally throw off the shackles imposed upon them by the elite?  The basic laws should be simple:
  • An honest money supply, separate from government and audited by the people is a prerequisite to everything else in this list.  Fiat currency and fractional reserve banking pretty much guarantee that, over time, all of the rules below will be violated.
  • Live and let live.  Let me do whatever I want to as long as it does not harm my fellow man.
    • Harm refers to physical harm, environmental harm.
    • It does not refer to anything else.  In all things, let the buyer beware and this market feedback force will keep other kinds of harm (like fraud) in check.  No, it will not stop all problems but that is impossible and something we certainly do not enjoy today anyhow.
    • I can harm myself if I want to whether that means getting a tattoo, getting a face piercing, drinking too much, smoking pot and snorting cocaine if that it how I define my life.  I can even commit suicide if that is my own will.  Keep all of these things away from kids below the age of 18 but after that we have to let these adults live their own lives.
  • Personal property is sacred.  Earn what you get, keep what you earn. Taxation should be minimal allowing for the shared protection of our country from attack, security of our borders, etc.  It should NOT EVER be used for:
    • Space exploration
    • Big science (i.e. massive non-economic toy boxes/welfare for the elite such as the Hadron Super Collider), etc.
    • Climate adventurism (government controlled weather modification)
    • Economic investment of any kind (i.e. Solyndra and all of the other failed attempts for central management of investment).
  • Jail is for violent offenders ONLY.  Anyone else who owes a debt to society should be working in order to pay it off, not sitting on their asses in a jail cell somewhere.  The perp should be allowed to find his own job and then have wages garnished to repay the debt to society and to the victims.  If they cannot or will not find a job then menial labor can be given to them to pick up trash, etc.  
  • I am not my brother's keeper if I damned well choose not to be. 
  • Nobody has the right to intervene in the affairs of another sovereign nation and whoever does should expect to be treated like an invading army with absolutely no limits placed on the military response.  Keep in mind that the US nuked Japan twice in WW2 and they never even invaded us.  We already set the precedent for when nukes can be employed.
  • Nobody owes me a living.
  • Protect our borders.  Promote free trade but avoid foreign entanglements and treaties.
  • Gun ownership and open carry 24/7/365 should be unalienable except for convicted violent felons.  Of course private property gives anyone the right to deny open carry or carry of any kind on their personal property.
ELITE: You are not the boss of us!!  Now go mow your own lawn, fix your own car, repair your own leaking roof and grow your own food.  That is what you will have to begin doing the SECOND that people stop accepting your funny money in exchange for their goods and services.  The only power that you hold over the workers is their belief in the value of your fraudulent money supplyOnce that goes, you jackasses go with it.

Saturday, August 30, 2014

Fastest cure ever!

Ebola has been around for decades ravaging Africa and other parts of the world in an on again, off again manner.  Nobody seemed to care.  Doctors were sent in to care for the sick.... or perhaps to just monitor the progress of things.  OK, OK, it's a bit conspiratorial but doesn't it just seem the tiniest bit odd that the disease somehow got to those giving the care - those white men and women of education and means - and then suddenly a cure pops up?  If I didn't know better I would say that this cure has been around in some form or fashion for a long time and that it was only trotted out at this point because those who were supposed to be monitoring the live human experiments, ummm, I mean Ebola epidemic in Africa, somehow fell sick themselves.  At that point they were all rushed home and where effective treatment was provided until a cure could be found just a few weeks later.

Folks, medical stuff is supposed to be complicated and time consuming, isn't it?  Drug development and illness treatments are supposed to take years and years to develop with many failures along the way.  So did the researchers just get a wild dose of inspiration because lots of white doctors got the disease or did the con men running the show pull out all the stops and show us their underwear in order to save their employees, or perhaps in order to save them from talking about what they know before they expire?

Nothing and I mean nothing do I put past these bastards.  I have just seen too much to give them any benefit of the doubt.  But for other people, people who perhaps don't think about these things very often, I ask you to consider how this Ebola cure was developed so quickly, so shortly after white doctors caught the disease while ZERO mention of any cure had been heard EVER before in the news, EVER.  This is not a case of "we were really close to a cure and luckily we got there in time to save the white doctors".  This is a case of "Ebola is a deadly disease with no cure, oh wait breaking news, some white doctors got the disease and are now being airlifted home and... oh wait, more breaking news, wonder of wonder, miracle of miracles we found a cure!  Thank GOODNESS!"

It's all just too coincidental IMO.  It's far more likely that we created the damned disease for the NWO eugenics program and also had a cure the whole time.  Then, while testing the disease weapon on poor people on a different continent, things got out of hand so they had to admit that they actually do have a cure so that they could save their pals without raising questions on how they were saved.  I don't believe in this kind of coincidence folks.

Instructive history lesson number 44: the rise and fall of the Baltic Dry Index

The Baltic Dry Index is a chart of the daily cost of chartering a ship for carrying dry goods.  Most of the ships are based in the Baltic, many of them run by Greek operators.  This is not a small operation, or one that is limited to the Baltic.  It is global shipping.  Here is the chart of it up to 2008.  Looks fantastic, huh?  Yeah, a lot of people were pretty giddy about these trees seemingly growing to the sky like that.

So what happened next?  Well, given whose blog this is you can probably already guess but below is the full chart.  For a long time, the BDI was flat and then it got the characteristic hockey stick rapid exponential rise before peaking.  When the bottom dropped out it happened so fast that it took everyone by surprise.  Nobody thought it was possible.  In the end analysis, it was a rising expanding wedge.  The fifth wave up busted through the top rail on both the 3rd and 5th waves before literally freefalling to a lower low.

But hey, why worry?  You aren't invested in shipping.  That was a fad, a mania, we all know that now.  That was an isolated case, a blip in history.... 

Or was it?  Maybe it was just the canary in a larger coalmine.  I don't know when the DJIA and S+P are going to collapse and neither does anyone else.  But folks, collapse they both eventually will.  That cannot be avoided; it is baked into the fabric of that chart in the form of leverage.  The main reason is the diminishing volume as prices have risen since 2009.  This is just a very thinly traded market compared to recent years.  It seems that lots of people got shaken out of the game in 2009 for good.  So when the selling starts there are not going to be enough buyers and thus nothing will stop it from falling once the herd believes that the sell is on.  The media will call it a panic.  What are they calling that hockey stick rise?  "NORMAL PROGRESS".  You can see how ridiculous these hypocritical views are but these are the majority views.  The only allowable direction is up according to the media.  I beg to differ.

Look at the BDI chart again.  Now compare it again to the DJIA chart.  The same forces which created that chart created the DJIA chart but at a different scale.  I expect the coming sell off to be historic in nature.

Where are we with Peak Credit?

In this 2013 post I provided the chart below from the federal reserve's "FRED" website which showed that credit growth was in a 5th and final wave.

In the chart above I clearly indicated that wave 5 had not peaked yet because it was not yet at the height of wave 1, shown by the red "I beams" in the chart.  Using this model, the rough estimate for the peak should be 3,400ish.  At the time of that reading, the credit was at about 3,100.

Today's chart update below is just wave 5 of the above chart.  This is important in order to get the wave detail.  It clearly shows that consumer credit is still climbing.  Of course, you can't pick absolute numbers for EW analysis. The wave structure is far more important.  Also, there are many measures for credit and consumer credit is possibly not the earliest one to show the downturn.  Don't be surprised that nobody knows the real truth about all of this!  All you have to do is look at the above chart, note that it has been in the current trend all the way back to Bretton Woods and understand that we are rapidly approaching uncharted territory.  The federal reserve has been sailing in uncharted waters for years.  Sooner or later they will strike a coral head and, as someone who has done that in person in the Bahamas, I can tell you it is not a pretty sight.

In any case here is one possible wave count:

Another count is also possible which leaves less, if any, runway until credit collapse begins:

I don't know which is a better count because the resolution of the data is so coarse.  Some quick blips down and then back up could easily have gotten filtered out.  This is why high resolution data always produced a count whose odds of being correct are higher.   Since we don't know how this will affect the stock market, it doesn't even make too much sense to assign too much immediate importance to it.  In other words if your goal is to make money shorting the markets into the collapse of the debt Ponzi, will the markets be forward looking in that regard or will the credit have to collapse first?  I just don't know and I don't think anyone else does either.  So the main take-away here is simply that this debt Ponzi can begin to reverse at any time and when it does it will not likely be a small blip but rather a major credit event for the global economy.

As Patrick Swayze said in the movie "Next of Kin", "You ain't seen bad yet, but it's coming".

More evidence says the pendulum is swinging away from liberalism.

Late in 2013 I looked at the Elliott wave charts of multiple different liberal indicators including total credit expansion, the stock markets, etc. and made a bold prediction which is now playing out.  That prediction was that the pendulum swing toward liberalism, which includes police state militarism, had reached a limit and was now in the process of reversing and swinging back toward conservatism.  I wrote (highlighting is new), "When the great fractional reserve credit scam collapses, the herd is going to make a dramatic transition from being a flock of sheeple into looking more like a pack of wolves.   Patsies that are so common today will become as rare as hen's teeth.  Strange as it might be to say, I expect the police state to be getting whacked along with socialism as the fraudulent money supply continues to face increasingly existential threats.   Sheeple put up with jackbooted cops.  Wolves won’t. Fraudulent money printing and Ponzi Pension Promises support an expanding bureaucratic police state.  Conservative work-for-what-you-get society will purge these excesses not by desire but rather by necessity."

Anything which got stronger during the last liberal 40+ years is now going to feel a strong decline.  That specifically includes US global militarism at all levels including the highly militarized US police state.  Today's case in point evidence of this swing is found in this article wherein the city council of left coast city Davis, CA has given the militarized police just 60 days to get rid of their MRAP vehicle which is a weapon of mass intimidation that was gifted to them by the feral (errrrr, federal) government.

Notice how the $700 k vehicle is listed as "surplus".  The truth is that it was all planned surplus.  Many of the vehicles have never seen overseas use, many are brandy new.  How is that "surplus".  I call it a welfare program for the "defense" industry.  All of these vehicles were produced at top dollar prices in order to fight war after war after needless war and they would have been used as such but the American people are tired of it.  Omama tried to sell a Syrian occupation to the American people a few months back but the herd just said no and Omama eventually figured out it was a lost liberal cause.  In fact Omama has pretty much figured out that he, like Harry Reid, is a lame duck now.  These guys can read polls and they are not stupid.  Omama now goes golfing and takes long vacations and runs fund raisers instead of bothering to play-act as president anymore.

I knew this was coming when I saw several YouTube video mea culpas begin to show up from good but ignorant and gullible people who at least had the guts to publicly admit that they now understand that they were lied to.  Mark and Patsy are waking up very, very quickly.  It is becoming much less in vogue to be a liberal something for nothing supporter and the herd is now frowning on it more and more each day.

This move back towards conservatism is not a short term trend.  This is going to be decades long.  The new world order is going to collapse of its own corrupt weight.  They did not or could not move fast enough to sufficiently concentrate power and to disarm the American people.  These things were absolutely required for any real take over to be consummated.  I know for my own part that anyone who tries to illegally (as measured by the constitution and by nothing else) disarm me will be treated with extreme hostility and with the use of deadly force authorized in the protection of myself and my family and my property as is allowed under Texas state law.

Memo to all LEOs: You have fucked up very badly.  A huge percentage of the people no longer trust you, do not back you, and many simply hate you.  It was your mistake, not ours.  You fell in line with the liberal powers who promised you mastership over the people if you would only follow orders, intimidate people who could be intimidated while jailing or killing all others.  You changed your uniforms, tactics and equipment to mimic military forces and SWAT teams.  You began to look down on the citizen as a necessary evil instead of us being your boss as it was always intended to be.  You demanded and accepted pay and benefits that are far beyond what normal people can expect in exchange for your corrupt loyalties.  You created a dual justice system whereby insiders and complicts could kill people in cold blood and get a paid vacation for it before returning the opinion that all actions were within departmental guidelines.  You ruined many good people's lives with your corrupt war on everything, zero tolerance and all those other fascist programs of control and intimidation.  You stopped caring about the taxpayer because you found that money was coming to you out of thin air, even if you didn't understand how all of it worked.

Now the credit is peaking and you are finding out that some of the things you were told by your leadership were lies.  Prepare to be further disappointed, disillusioned and demoralized because the revelations have just begun. You are under the control of an unholy alliance of liberal powers whose only energy source was the growth of the money supply through ever increasing debt.  The undertaking of new debt is how you have been paid all this time and now that this is drying up you can only expect your numbers to decrease, your pay to become capped and your retirement benefits to be slashed and eventually converted into a 401k deal where you will be trapped in the inflation scam like the rest of us.  Expect more prosecutions of police, less backing of your corrupt actions from above and the eventual culling of those in your ranks who are pumped up on steroids.

Now is the time to realize these truths.  Now is the time to understand that taxpayers are your bosses and that you cannot be our masters.  You are either our good servants or you can go look for other employment.  You either begin to care about people - really care - or we will weed you out.  Look for us to come after your corrupt bosses.  We know who they are and we are working toward their downfall and replacement.  It's time to cross the blue line and bring down your fellow officers who are corrupt.  "Go along to get along" is no longer a winning game plan.  The two level justice system must collapse into a single set of laws that apply equally to police and to citizens.  Get right with the people, mend those fences that you have broken.  Give respect and then you shall receive it.  You cannot demand respect first!  You must earn it like the rest of us have to.  In short, return to being a human. 

You can take this as advice.
You can take it as a warning.
You can take it as a promise.

All three of the above statements are applicable now that the great global debt Ponzi is entering into the collapse stage.
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