Friday, August 29, 2014

GE trying to quietly raise cash by divesting of assets.

My opinion on GE is clear and unwavering: it will BK before the coming crash has bottomed.  GE is the poster child for globalized, debt-fueled corporations.  It is way too big to bail and it is a massive shadow bank.  Its Altman Z score shows that it has high odds of BK within the next 2 years.  Here is the first reading I took at 1.3.  It's now at 1.34, barely any change since late 2013.  When interest rates begin to push higher, GE will begin to dive deeper and deeper into distress with its debt being downgraded and downgraded until its borrowing costs for roll overs is so high that it has no choice but to BK.

I believe that the federal reserve has begun to intervene and to force it to sell assets in order to raise some cash while pretty good prices are still possible for said assets.  It's trying to maintain calm but GE got big by buying businesses on debt and now the debt associated with acquisitions and the vendor finance scam it has been running (IMVHO!) is making operating profits impossible.  This is what a top always looks like.  They will sell a few things at pretty good prices but then the signalling of further divestitures will make buyers wary about paying high prices and they will demand massive price cuts for the assets.  GE will whine about them being unreasonable and then the interest rates will begin to climb and GE will have to sell stuff at lower prices.  The buyers of these assets will soon develop cases of buyer's remorse as interest rates continue to climb and GE has to sell even more stuff at a time when others have decided to get lean as well.  An asset price war will begin but instead of it being one where the asset is bid up, the war will be between sellers to price their assets lower.  In the case of GE it will ultimately turn into a battle of sell stuff or default on debt payments and die so it will sell like mad but I think it is too late.  It will default and then it will declare BK and what remains of it will be broken up in BK court.

The chart is bad enough when shown in linear scale but it is downright scary looking when observed in log scale.  Still, the log scale clearly shows the EW elements in play including 3 wave internal structures given that the overarching structure falls into the triangle category (even if it is an expanding one instead of the normal contracting type).  It also shows alternation of the big B waves between 2 and 4.  Finally, that declining double top, while it could still turn into a 4th wave triangle, does not look promising for the shares at this point.


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