Here is my first post on HPQ. Not everything from that post came true about the broader markets but this portion does seem to have a good chance of playing out as modeled:
"HPQ seems to be rushing toward a major top at which time it will turn
back down. Note that this top could either likely be at the 50% fib or
the 61.8% fib. The 61.8% fib is the case that I drew the ending
diagonal in to address. If it doesn't stop at the 50 then look for a
break of the top green line, a kiss of the 61.8 and then a plunge back
through the ending diagonal during the stock market vicious months of
Q3."
I stand by that statement if I change the Q3 to Q4 which is really when the market vicious months are anyhow. If you followed the link back to the prior model, I had the fib calculator up and the 61.8 was at 38.08. Today the chart has indeed created a rising wedge during the C wave, broken out of the top channel rail recently and is now trading at $37.99. So it is very close to my target price and in fact the peak might already be in.
This one will be very safe and easy to short IMO. Simply wait for the chart to fall through the top rail of the ending diagonal and then short it. If it pops back above that rail, then cover. Simple as that. Given the broader market action, I don't think it will recover if it falls into the channel. I think it will plunge quickly through the lower rail.
Bottom line: HPQ's bull market since late 2012 is likely very very nearly over if not already over and it is happening in locked step with the broader market's peaking after bottoming before HPQ in 2009.
Thursday, August 28, 2014
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