TSLA update - major top likely

My track record for calling TSLA turns has actually been pretty good as evidenced by my blog posts.  In this post I correctly called the first peak.   I also recognized that the first peak was only wave one and that higher highs were coming as I modeled two potential paths for finishing wave 2 and going into wave 3. In this post I correctly called for a 5th wave bounce (albeit a few bucks too early).  Yes there was some confusion between what was the 3rd and 5th wave but this is almost a given when trying to call the waves in real time.

Today I am modeling another major top on TSLA shares.  I think 5 waves up have very nearly played out and that TSLA longs should not only sell but should consider flipping short very soon!  All the signs are there at this point.  Another count is possible but it does not detract from the short term negativity of the current chart.  I suspect that, whatever the deal turns out to be, wherever the  location turns out to be, the coming announcement of the Gigafactory location will be viewed as bad somehow.  The wave count is telling us that the herd is ready to take ANY news and spin it bad.

Anyone not sure of this count can simply wait until the shares fall below red 4 in the model and that will be a confirmation that the herd is turning south on TSLA shares.  Best case price target is $180.  That would be the level of the prior 4th as well as the 38.2 fib.  61.8 fib is $114 which also corresponds with wave 2 below.  If this is treated as an expanding wedge which dies mid channel, it would not be considered uncommon to retrace the entire wedge and that would be the $114 price level of wave black 2.