Thursday, February 27, 2014

TSLA shares now going nearly straight up:$290 and then freefall expected

The leveraged - fueled animal spirits have demonically posessed TSLA shares even as it needs to acquire funding for expansion of its operations.  The fact that TSLA will likely be a success is not in question and it never was by me.  The fact that trees don't reach the sky is what I want to warn people about.

Whenever anything that is involved with finance goes exponential, expect an eventual collapse.  The shares closed at $252 today while forming what is quite probably a 4th wave triangle.  That means that it was the penultimate wave.  Looking at the shape of the chart, it looks like it wants to form an ending diagonal with a throwover that will likely kiss te 1-3 line as shown below.  If that happens, SELL it and SHORT it.  Do not fall in love with something that is going exponential. Fight the herding instinct, suspend your emotions and trust the chart.  The chart does not lie. Everything else is a lie or a concealment or a trick.  The chart tries to be tricky but if you step back a ways the strategy of its moves is not that difficult to divine.

The next support for these shares is $115, the level of the prior 4th.  If this chart pops to $290 in the next 1-2 days as shown below, I will buy some June $160 puts for probably (at that time) $225 per contract.  What goes up must come down.  Talk about long in the tooth folks.  The whole bull market of all shares is long in the tooth.


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