OPPT Update

I wonder if anyone heeded my last post on OPTT where I shared my model that said it was time to get bullish on the shares.  They were at $2.07 at the time.  They are more than double that now.

However, I think we might have just seen 3 of 5 of 5 and 4 of 5 of 5 and so I would bail out quickly on these shares on the next pop to the $5 range with hard stop at $4.40 in order to wait for a better entry point again.  In fact, I might not even wait for the next pop because you also risk a big gap down.  These shares have had a good Ponzi Pump but they look tired for now and that next spike to 5 of 5 of 5 could likely form Owl Ears and then plunge.

Here is the much larger picture.  I have to say that it is not clear what happens after the next big retrace because this past move up was not a "clean" Elliott motive wave.  Why?  Because 4 retraced into the area of 1.  It looks more like an expanding triangle and I will say that I saw a lot of these happen in 2009 as the markets were recovering.  If  this goes the same way it will form what in my mind is a fish tail as shown below.  The retracement will be choppy back down possibly forming an ending diagonal.  If this happens at a higher high than what I have labeled as C below, buy with both hands because that will have been wave 2 of a new bull market in these shares.  The next move would be to $10.

 All of the above speculation is way out there from an evidence perspective.  It is 80% gut feel/experience based (except the near term topping call which is chart based).  Also keep in mind that this is a negative January effect year.  The markets are shrugging that off for now but that sell off is now part of the record and any forgetfulness is only topical.  The markets do not forget.  People forget but the markets don't.  The chart record is contiguous going all the way back to the start of the DJIA.  None of that is forgotten. It is all woven into the fabric.

On the other hand, low energy prices have made alternative, renewable energy sources like OPTT unattractive.  But new regulations (more global warming crap from bureaucrats) could put upward pressure on the likes of solar and wave generation (AFTER the record cold weather in the USA subsides, that is.  Cough cough.) even as the broader markets fall.




The way these small stocks are moving and the way gold and silver are moving means the market is currently anticipating inflation.  But I don't think the BIG inflation is upon the US yet.  Not yet.  It's coming but not quite yet.  First we have dramatic deflation left to deal with because all of the Ponzified paper assets owned by banks are worthless and they will someday be recognized as such.  That will be massive deflation and it will be painful.  Parts of the world are already experiencing record joblessness.  There is no way the US is going to get out of this unscathed. Keep your nose in the air for contagion.  It's coming and probably sooner than most people expect.