Watch for one final market rally on Monday before the real plummeting begins.

Today's intra-day reversal was not a good sign in the short term for bulls.  It's one thing to go few days up and then have a pull back day.  That is expected.  But intra-day reversals show much greater nervousness, much weaker hands (i.e. those late to the game on high debt based leverage) are participating.  Still the technical damage has not been confirmed as a death blow yet.  The topping process is always full of whipsaw in order to keep the market from getting complacent.

I'm not giving it sure thing odds but I'm watching for another reversal on Monday per the blue line.  This version of the model suggests that the formation which just finished turned out to be a horizontal triangle which means it is not the final wave down but rather the penultimate wave down.  It could take TVIX down to the $6.50-$6.70 range. 

That number was not chosen randomly.  It is the distance of the 1st wave down of this series as measured by the horizontal red lines at the upper left.  The model is not mandatory to occur but it does have a valid wave count associated with it, and it would fool as many people as possible which of course is the goal of the markets, especially at turning point where the percentage gains are the highest.