Friday, February 28, 2014

My model says beware the AM break out head fake up.

There is a high probability that a market reversal is imminent.  The safe play under these conditions is to watch very carefully for the sell trigger and then to trust it if it happens.  Maybe the lower support line circled in heavy red below will hold but if it doesn't then a major correction is indicated.  Also, just going to the bottom of the channel again will be painful enough.  That's 330 $COMPX points right there.  That 4th wave triangle is ominous and it signals that the NASDAQ comp (the leading index these days) is now working on its last wave.  If you can't sit and watch it, put tight stops on everything because the throw over is happening both on the weekly chart (shown immediately below) as well as the 30 minute chart below that.  5th wave throwovers are not your friend!! They are a sell signal.

The party is very, very long in the tooth.  Let fear be your main guide right now.



Here's the close up showing a 5th wave expanding triangle's throwover in progress.  The sell signal will be the break back down below the top channel and then the confirmation will be the break below the lower channel.  After breaking back into the channel, a break back above is the negation trigger.


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