FB shares again at likely topping point.

The ending diagonal model which I presented back on Feb 4 is still valid.  What has happened since then is that the throw over has grown larger while still keeping an a-b-c form.   After I saw that triangle form following the gap up, I drew the small green nearly vertical line you see below.  I did that in early Feb.  The shares have recently reached that price target and so I believe that a reversal opportunity again presents itself, this time of higher odds than before.  However, this must break down soon - well within a week - or the odds that this model is correct begin to plummet.

Since my price target was hit, the next thing is to look at the wave structure to see if it looks like a 5 wave move up that would be the C wave of the 5th wave of the ending diagonal I'm modeling.  As you can see from the wave count below, it does model very nicely as a 5 wave move with subwaves well withing EW rules.  We have parallelism between grey 1-3 and grey 2-4 as well as between green [1]-[3] and green [2]-[4].  Check out the perfect alternation of grey 1-2 and 3-4 as well as green [1]-[2] and green [3]-[4].

So it looks like the peak is in and that we have started moving down.  Confirmations will come soon enough but when you get a setup like this it is more profitable to make a speculative bet and then bail out on non-confirmation with a miniscule loss than to loss the early mover percentage gains of catching the exact peak.  If this model is wrong you will likely know it within 1-2 days.  But you don't even have to watch it.  Just short this dog and then set your stops to automatically cover at the red horizontal line.  Hitting that line negates the current count and you are out and safe for very low cost.  There are no certainties for stock sniping like this.  You have to fire a shot once in awhile and you have to be aware that it could miss.  The miss is not a waste.  It is a learning opportunity.  Aim small, miss small.

So, when to pull the short trigger?  When exactly?  Well, the chart says that Friday ended with an ending diagonal.  I model that as wave 1 of a new down trend.  Ending diagonals can retrace their whole length or they can retrace to the prior 4th wave so the red circles are good speculative buy points.  If the shares break the upper red line then they should be sold and another look taken at the chart.  If they break down in the region of the blue circle then the start of a very significant pullback has likely occurred.  How significant?  In that case my target price would be $44.  That is a very trade-able move to the downside even if "THE CRASH" is not upon us yet.