Tuesday, February 25, 2014

Important FAZ update

The broader market rally is clearly showing signs of weakening.  But is it a head fake or are the bulls really getting winded?

The latter, I suspect, given the shape of the triple reverse financial ETF with ticker symbol FAZ.  I model the January low as a 3rd wave, the 3 wave movement into early February as a 4th wave and now we are very near the finish of the 5th wave down.  The blue ending diagonal needs to just hit the bottom of the channel and hopefully throw under it and then reverse upwards somewhere within the red circle.  That would be a text book Elliott finish.

If this happens, the next real resistance is the level of the prior 4th at around $25.50.  If this chart moves up in 3 waves to just below that level and then begins to reverse back downward then I will have to suspect that a larger triangle is forming which will go back down to the 20s for FAZ.  The play is not difficult: hope for the throw under and instead of being afraid of it, embrace it with tight stops as a crocodile embraces the small herding animal that is trying to cross the river.  If it should poke you in the eye by exceeding your stop limits of at least 3%, let it go and get stopped out quickly.  There will be other crossings, other small game to make a meal of.  You risk 3% in order to gain 20+%.  Do that enough times with success and your results will speak for themselves.

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