The two things that worry me most about metals still.

Miners have been breaking out.  GDX is sitting ar $24.77 today.  GLD at 124.43 which is over the breakout point provided by a smart fellow waver who does this professionally.

So why am I worried still?  There are 2 reasons.

1. While I think that metals will eventually decouple from stocks, right now they are not decoupled and I see a big collapse in stocks before mid year.
2. Alternation.  Look at the USLV weekly chart below.  It's possible that it will turn into an ending diagonal.  The first wave that dives down into the green triangle is 1.  The rapid upswing that follows is typical 2nd wave action.  The market cannot believe that its golden asset is being devalued and so it buys the dip.  Wave 3 is the long slow decline - Prechter's so called slope of hope.  If wave 2 was a vee then by the rule of alternation we should get a sideways 4th wave.  Guess what we got?  A sideways 4th wave.

There is a 3rd reason which I heard Andy Grove (Intel honcho) say one time: only the paranoid survive.  I think that will be triple true in the next 2-3 years.

Bottom line is that if stocks head back down, watch the metals.  Do they head down too?  If so, I would not be loading up on them.  Dollar cost averaging into the physical on a regular basis for retirement?  You betcha.  But until there is a clear breakout I would not leverage up here as a buy and hold.  Trading SLV and USLV?  Sure.  Going to the casino is fun too.  But before this is over we might get lower prices on metals and I will be dollar cost averaging in all the way down.  I'm telling you there is not that much above ground silver on this planet and as the price goes down the amount that will be bought and stored will increase dramatically. 

In any case, I'm watching the metals like a hawk.

Fear.  Fear... and discipline.