FB Update

Facebook continues to be a Wall St darling but nothing is going to save it from a major down draft when the rest of the markets begin to plummet.  It looks like my original model is playing out quite well.  What I had modeled before as an ending diagonal in progress has now gone into a completed 5 rail bump ending diagonal in a throw over condition which has also touched the 1-3 line. 

The odds strongly suggest that best course of action to be an immediate sell and wait for the retracement to occur  I haven't checked but I suspect the puts are way under priced on this one since everyone seems to love it.  After all, with good earnings, how can it possible go down nearly 30% that I have modeled for it?  No way, right?

Unfortunately, earnings do not trump Elliott waves and the EW model shows an ending diagonal in its final stages which should collapse rapidly down to about where the diagonal started: $44-$46 is my range.  But then I would consider trading long on it because while I am not 100% sure whether the ending diagonal is the 3rd or 5th wave, it doesn't really matter for short term trading purposes.  A move back down to the $44-$46 level is likely cause for going long AS LONG AS the pattern back down is a properly formed A-B-C retracement.  Having said that, I do believe that the throw over is the 5th of 3.  Thus the original model stands and the updated version is below.