Dow probably finishing 5th of 3 of 1.

The chart below is my current model for the Dow.  IF this is correct there should be a bottoming at 3 and then a trade-able sucker's rally to 4.  Then down to probably a lower low into 5 of 1.  If this happens, the new bear market will receive its first confirmation: 5 waves down.  In other words, an Elliott impulse downward.

Then expect another tradeable sucker's rally back up to 15950 before headed back down into the real damage as wave 3 plays out for the markets.  Big wave 3 down is where the markets will begin to get very fearful.  This is where put option buys should do very well because of rapid price changes per unit time (cliff diving).

There are a number of things that could happen to derail this model (trigger points) but so far it looks like the Dow party of the past couple years might well be over.