Tuesday, February 4, 2014

USLV just can't break out yet. Soon but not yet.

When the market goes into full panic I expect metals to be treated as a safe haven.  The fact that metals have not broken out yet tells me that the bulls are not yet all that fearful despite recent market action.  They have been buying the dip for 2 year and it has worked for them.  Sure, Bernanke has tapered by 20 bn but there is still 65 bn worth of money printing going on each month and Yellen has not spoken yet.  By that, I mean that Yellen is widely thought to be a dovish money printer (which she is).  Because of this, the markets are waiting for "The Yellen Put" to underpin the next wave of bullish Ponzi Purchases.

But something tells me it will not be so easy for her.  Something tells me that her hands are tied to some degree and that she will attempt to jawbone the markets.  If that's all she does then it will not be enough to restore Ponzi confidence.  The markets will blow up in her face.  And once they get started south it will be nearly impossible to stop them because everyone knows these markets are a bubble and nobody wants to get stuck holding an empty bag.

In any case, USLV still looks like it has one more wave down before 5 rail bumps are complete.  I will sell for a 4% profit since I bought at the open yesterday and get myself ready for a move into TVIX.

Note: a break out of the two down sloping green lines you see there would be very bullish for USLV, time to pile in with good safety.  Unless that happens, all I see here is a declining double top.


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