Monday, February 3, 2014

Odds favor serious topping of GOOG.

I'm not sure if the final wave count will be an ending diagonal as shown left or a failed 5th as shown right.  I'm leaning toward the left count because I see 5 waves down have already formed today.   In the case of the left it is an ending diagonal with 5th wave throw over followed by 5 waves down where the 3rd wave took out both the top and bottom rails (important observation as only a 3rd wave should be expected to break significant support or resistance levels).  In the case of the right, wave 4 of 5 is playing out and then we would see 5 waves up into wave 5 of 5.  I think that it would be a failed 5th as shown at right.  Although the charts look similar (The Owl) both left and right, it will be important to remember how it got there later on because that history helps predict the future movements of the model.

 In celebration of the throw over, I bought 1 more June 840 put contract for $2.34.  That one will turn into an 8-10 bagger before I sell it IMO.  If we get one final higher high for a 5th wave I will try to scoop another of these contracts for $2.  Someone is seriously mispricing risk!  It appear to me that the options sellers still think buy the dip is in play.  Thus, they expect these to expire worthless in June as they have so many times up until now.  Each dip the bears come alive, each subsequent rally the bulls gore them. 

But trees don't grow to reach the sky folks and this stock market Ponzi is long in the tooth.  So I think I will continue to wear my bear suit until the charts prove my models to be wrong.




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