Saturday, February 1, 2014

A "short" caution to bears not to get too bearish too quickly.

Fear is entering the market for sure.  But major changes in trends never occur simply.   They tend to be tricky in  order to fool the most people for that is the very nature of markets - to fool most of the people most of the time.  I've been on topping watch of the S+P 500 for some time now.  I'm quite sure that 2014 will be very bad for people in the stock market.  But nobody can say with certainty when that happens.  We can only model to make educated guesses.

It's possible that the peak is in but don't expect the bulls to give up without a fight.  We should know pretty soon either way.  If the chart holds the lower grey line and starts back up then we could get a full 5th wave up to higher highs including the chance of a throw over at the top OR we could go up and do a failed 5th leaving us with a large declining double top.  But once the lower support line is breached to the downside and then fails the upward back test then we can be pretty sure that the bull is dead.

So begin prepping for the bear but be wary of bear traps.  The con men can play this game really well, but not forever.  This is the value of dollar cost averaging into a position and adding more as your model proves correct (or "not" if it happens to go against you...).


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