Expect the market to be trecherous!!

I can really make a case both ways short and long over the next 2 days and they should be big market moves so it matters, especially to someone playing TVIX!  Below is the VXX chart and I have to say, it does not look like it is ready to skyrocket.  Quite the contrary.  As a current market bear I fear this chart for the next 1-2 days.

The first wave of the likely new bear market (wave 1 up) is shown below.  We have 5 waves up into an ending diagonal (which means 1 impulse in the broader market bearish direction since VXX is goes higher as the broader markets decline).  But that ending diagonal has thrown over, tested lower support, and then broken down.  The break down looks like 5 waves down.  It's trying to camouflage the fact and be tricky about it but I think it is 5 waves down.  That means it cannot be the whole retracement.  That means it is likely A of C.  Bears, be very, very wary of this bear trap!  Do not expect the bull to just give up easily.

If this is the case then the next move will be up to the 38.2 fib (show below) or the 50% fib before breaking back down to lower lows.  The value of this to the ever-tricky market is that at the open, shorts will be seeing some bearishness, decide that the sucker's rally is over, and then go wading in.  By 10am or so the trap should be set and the markets can bang upwards on some fake good news (or just more bad news that is spun positively).  If we see a move up to B and then a reversal to a lower low in VXX than A, it is a signal that you can trade long this market and pick up some bonus bucks for the remainder of the C wave which should not be shorter than the A wave.  If this turns out to be the case, I swag that C wave down to about VXX $43.

After 5 bullish NAS/DJIA waves up (i.e. 5 bearish VXX waves down), I would get the heck out of my long position because the odds would favor that whole move being nothing more than a wave 2 retracement in a broader bear market.

Fear and discipline!