Sunday, May 31, 2015

[AAPL] peak is likely in @~$134.60

In the backlink what I thought was 5 of 5 was only 3 of 5.  So it had one more small motive wave left in it to complete the count instead of heading for the bottom rail.

But I think the count is done now.

Nobody and I mean nobody is calling AAPL down right now and in fact there are public outcries for it to double from here.  Yes, these public assertions of confidence come from big investors and yes I do get the irony of this coming from someone whose last name is correctly pronounced I-Con.  So Icahn is clearly talking up his book here. 

But I think that his loud talk likely marks a major, major peak because the wave count, which seems pretty clear at this point, strongly suggests that, at the very least a 3 wave move back to the $55 range is indicated into 2017 (and it could go much lower).  I hesitate to think of the things that might have to happen for this kind of retracement to occur.  I would not eliminate a major war, perhaps even world war, as contributory.  China is beginning to roll over and its government seems to be building military bases in the middle of the China sea on reclaimed islands even as everyone looks on in a bit of shock.

When AAPL goes down, everything goes down.

[PCLN] update [LUV]

LUV Backlink.

In the PCLN backlink I called a peak near 1400 and expected a decline to about 950.  Here is the model from that post.

The real time zoomed in snapshot shows that it got down to about 990 before bouncing hard into a deep vee 2nd.  But I think that is just the beginning.   Go for the Jan 2017s to be safe.

Even if the markets are still in a strong bull per Avi, the next move for PCLN is most likely down to a minimum of the 38.2 around 850 but more likely a retracement to the prior 4th in the 530-560 range.  If ever you had a mind to buy puts on PCLN, this the chart setup you have been looking for because we should be entering wave 3 down pretty quick now.  Once the economic numbers verify that we are in recession, ALL consumer stocks will take a hit.  Note that the airlines are the leading indicators and the airlines are getting pounded.

Do you remember my first post ever on LUV?  Below is the chart model I provided there side by side with current snapshot.  I correctly modeled that peak as W3 so then we should expect 4 and then 5.  Given that I modeled the 5th of 5 as playing out, I suspected that it could also be a failed 5th resulting in a declining double top or, as I like to call it, owl ears.

This in fact is just what happened.  I think LUV is tracing out 3 of 1 right now.  Time will tell if this model continues to be correct but the point of mentioning LUV here is that my model for LUV has been spot on so far and if Luv continues to plummet per my original model, how can PCLN stay buoyant?   It can't and so it won't.

LUV has not put in 5 waves down yet but soon enough I reckon it will.

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More