Don't stray too far from [UVXY]

In the comments of the backlink I worried that the recent bounce might have been a small degree 4th wave.  Below is what I am talking about.  Note that the decline from ~$43 looks to have been 5 waves in this snapshot.  Thus the expectation would be for a 2nd wave to form and then 3,4, and finally pink 5 which would end red 5 which would end green 5.

This may in fact happen but at the very, very end of a long decline like this it is not uncommon for the final tiny way to fall short of a new low.  So you end up with a 4th wave and then 5 waves down to complete the EW count for a 5th wave but you don't get the attendant new low.  EW calls this a failed 5th, I like to call it a short stroke.  So this may happen and we will know very early tomorrow but if we get a lower low than today's low then we will probably see a decline to $35 into the end of May in order to complete 5 of 5 of 5.

I don't think that this model ending into the end of May is a coincidence.  If you know anything about hunting, animals tend to gather and accumulate where habitat changes from one kind to another.  Since people are herding animals they do similar things.  A month boundary is a psychological opportunity for a direction change.  Importantly, nobody in the financial media is calling for a "Swoon in June".  They did predict "Walk away in May" this year and it was plastered all over the yahoo finance, CNBC, etc.  but I have yet to see a Swoon in June call and so I am making that call: I think a large market pull back of at least 20% and could be much higher begins in June.

Time will tell but UVXY will be your friend once the VIX shorts begin to cover and then the market longs also come swooping in looking for cheap crash insurance.