[MSFT] update

In the backlink I was looking for 5 waves down to complete before believing that the fat lady had sung on MSFT. The current snapshot below suggests that she has.  If this model is correct then black 2 was a deep vee 2nd wave and now we are working on black 3.  I think that 1 of 1 of 3 is complete and that very soon, perhaps as soon as next week we should see this begin to move down rapidly into green 3 (i.e. 3 of 1 of 3) which should carry well south of $46.

A very easy short play here is to short it at Monday's open and then only cover above green 2 (i.e. ~$49).  This is a high odds play with a well defined bail out point which is very close to the current price.  In other words the asymmetrical bet.  Note that selloff volume into Feb was 150 mn shares while the bounce volume was 100mn shares.  That's a good deal of volume difference, especially given how high the bounce was.  The shorts are going to feel very comfortable stepping back in at these levels IMO.