Saturday, February 28, 2015

My how the infighting of the global criminal cartel has escalated!

This could be about to get interesting folks because the Ruskies have apparently threatened to release information that they have on on the 9-11 conspiracy in the form of satellite photos.  As I have mentioned many times, since eyes are the highest bandwidth input device of a human, picture or video evidence is by far the most compelling in our decision making process.  If the Russians really do have such evidence, and I would be surprised if they didn't know the full truth of what our criminal government did on that day and days leading up to it (as well as why they did it and who they conspired with to do it), then release of such evidence would be world changing.

It is a long standing thesis of mine that as long as the debt Ponzi was rising, all the criminals would just cooperate with each other in order to fleece the people.  Rising debt based prosperity was their energy source.  But with all of the fake prosperity waning globally, the international government criminals now feel the people pushing back against their arguments for more wars (i.e. debt growth mechanisms), more control, more power, more un-payable debt, etc.  Prosperity and full stomachs keep the herd docile.  Hunger and constant threats and insecurity make the herd very ornery and, most importantly, unpredictable.  That makes the herd dangerous to dear leaders.

The US sanctions have been making it very difficult for Putin to maintain control.  Recent proof of this is that Putin had to kill one of his vocal detractors recently and the people know that it was a political hit.  Putin won a battle but is losing the war with this kind of move.  These things used to happen all the time but nobody cared.  This is rapidly changing and the con men know it.  If the people decide to self organize against dear leaders, a stomping will ensue. 

It's hard enough for dear leaders to retain control just based their own internal problems but when outside criminal elements join in on the attack then Putin is backed into a corner.  He has two options: start a preemptive war or open the closet full of US skeletons and let them flop out on the floor.  In a big, loud and public way.

Infighting among the criminal elite was clearly spelled out on this blog years in advance as a sign of the end times of the debt Ponzi.  I'm not trying to boast here folks; boasting to a bunch of anonymous strangers is pointless.  I don't get paid for this blog in any way BY DESIGN.  I don't care what people think of me writing this stuff BY DESIGN.  I consider it a charitable service to my fellow man (and women) who would otherwise not have any opportunity to really understand what is going on.  My message has not changed one bit in 5 years of writing this. Here in fact is a link to a 2011 post that pretty much sums up what is now happening.  A quick summary of it:
  • Rising credit fueled rising immorality as people began to chase the false prosperity for fear of falling behind (herding 101).  THEY PLAYED US using the scam of fake money against us as a weapon.  They used their understanding of herding nature against us as a weapon.  It was truly a crime against humanity in the most basic sense.
  • The debt Ponzi is peaking and there will be clear symptoms of it for everyone to see if they know what to look for
    • Infighting among those who used to cooperate as long as they were each allowed to control their own territory
    • A sudden breakout of repentance (whether real or just for show) was to be expected.  In looking at the headlines of 2015 so far, look at all of the apologies that are happening from every sector.
    • Other evidence of mass awakening.
  • As part of the great "tattle battle", the truth of 911 would finally be told.  I wrote, "Of course there is still one massive shoe that still needs to drop and it will likely come (or be the cause of) the fastest portion of the Great Awakening that is coming and that is the real truth behind 911...".  At the time most people laughed at me and rolled their eyes even though they had done zero study whereas I had invested thousands of hours.  Since then the laughing has largely stopped as evidenced by the fact that page hits on my blog have moved up exponentially.  People don't generally bother reading stuff that they don't already agree with. 

While this story is getting zero play in the US outside of fringe news websites, that could change in an eye blink if such proof is actually released.  I checked around and this was a real story in Pravda, the official propaganda rag of the Russian government.  Here is the original link to Pravda online.  Lemme ask you something, OK?  Do you think Putin is having an easy time of it right now with all the international condemnation, the collapse of the Ruble and the collapse of oil prices which their economy is so dependent upon?  Of course not.  He is under intense pressure to retain control and in a faith based society where money and leaders are only considered as such as long as the people have faith in them, Putin needs to do whatever he can to regain confidence of the people.  The quickest way to do that would be to stand the US-led sanctions down.

With that said, do you think that telling Pravda to print a fake conspiracy accusation about the US would be in his best interest?  I'll restate: Pravda said they had clear evidence of a US false flag around 911.  They said that they had satellite evidence and other things which would blow away the US government's cover story.  Do you think Putin would risk saying these things if he could not in fact deliver???  What would that do to his credibility if an innocent US government called bullshit and demanded immediate and public release of all such "evidence" so that the US could mock him into oblivion?  Do you think Putin is really so stupid as to open himself up to being globally laughed at when he cannot deliver credible proof?


I cannot say whether now is the time when this information will be released but it defies logic to believe that the Russians would come up with such wild accusations without being able to back them up.  Note that this story broke on Pravda on 2-7-2015.  Clearly the global governments got wind of it in advance.  We really don't believe that the actual online news release was the first they heard about this, do we?  Are we really still that asleep?  I didn't think so.  So perhaps this knowledge was the real reason behind the sudden need for the EU leaders to fly out there the day before.  I just am not that big a believer in coincidence folks.

Putin's back is up against a wall and telling the world the truth about 911 would literally destroy global confidence in the US as its moral leader.  Remember what I always say about con games: when the con is exposed in a way that Mark and Patsy finally understand, the con is over and the backlash is immediate and extreme.

And now a short word to US authorities who might be trying to decide what to do if Russia outs your corrupt criminal behavior to the US public.  I'm sure you are playing out all your game simulations here.  You know what a drop in confidence will likely do to public support and so you must be trying to figure out how to retain power once the mass of sleepers have fully awakened.

The first thing in your mind might be to do more of what got you here in the first place.  In other words, declare martial law and then send your forces out to lock everyone down and control everything with deadly force in the name of maintaining peace.  I want to go on record telling you that if you do that it will lead to your complete destruction.  There are too many well armed and well motivated patriots who will not comply.   So if this is your plan then you better be prepared to go door to door having firefights with people who are now in the frame of mind to defend themselves from you.   I predict that blood will spill if you attempt to suspend the constitution even for 1 minute.  "Temporary suspension" of it is not going to wash.  The awake and informed people of this country know that there is nothing temporary about the overt loss of freedom.  If this occurs then it will set historical precedent and that cannot be allowed.  The imprisonment of Ray Nagin was all that I needed to see in order to know that the American people will not put up with it.

The only way for you to achieve any sense of a win during the coming time of change will be to understand the full gravity of the situation that you are facing.  You have to cut your losses, dear criminals, if any of you want any hope of remaining part of the next administration of this country.  Those of you in the police and military who knew all of this corrupt and immoral shit was going down, you have the opportunity to express your loyalty to America.  You can refuse to comply with unconstitutional orders.  You can instead slap into chains those who demand that martial law be done in the name of peace and order.  You need to stop following illegal, unconstitutional orders or you will be buried with the rest of the criminals in your midst that you have, so far, failed to take down.

The way forward is for the new leadership to cut ties with the corrupt past.  Turn on these con men, liars, thieves and murders.  Stop doing their bidding.  Expose their dark secrets into the public light of day and let sunlight be the grand disinfectant.  Let them do the perp walk of shame on camera while you give the big speeches about how the criminal element of government has been taken down.  It's about your only chance.

Central governmental control is waning.

While the US federal government still apparently has all of the power right now, the wise observer will take notice of many widening cracks appearing at the periphery.  Today's case in point is how Maine is quietly trying to reverse seat belt laws imposed by the nanny state.

Let's face it: if you don't wear seat belts then you are taking a huge risk.  A sudden impact at even as slow as 20 mph is still fast enough to throw your whole body at the dashboard and windshield at, well, 20mph.  These simple physics alone should be enough for anyone with any sense at all to wear seat belts every time they get into a car regardless of front or back seat.

So nobody is questioning the logic of doing it.  What the awakening people of Maine (and I) don't like is HAVING to do it under threat of state imposed penalties.   It's not just the fact that not wearing a seat belt can get you pulled over and slapped with a ridiculous fine of $300 or more.  It's the fact that this simple and nonviolent infraction all of a sudden gives the police probable cause to do more intrusive things like demand your identification papers, do background checks on you to see if the state is looking for you (which could be legit or just for political persecution purposes) and in some cases even search your vehicle.

OK, OK, maybe you're rolling your eyes and thinking "This guy is paranoid.  the cops aren't that bad.  if you've done nothing wrong you have nothing to hide" blah blah blah.  Well, for those of you that are completely brainwashed by the state for thinking like this, please educate yourself with facts like this story about a man who was shot by cops for no reason after they made a seat belt stop on him.  In other words, just because it hasn't happened to you or yours yet you should not assume that it doesn't happen.  I'm telling you, the cops are steroid pumped control freaks because that's who the state has purposely hired and promoted in order to blindly enforce whatever policy the assholes that we have foolishly allowed to be in charge of us come up with.  ANY encounter with the police can quickly turn deadly.

I also believe that the police know they are doing many wrong, immoral and illegal things and it has given many of them the demon of paranoia.  It causes them to believe that any little physical move is you going for a gun.  Perhaps they have been involved in enough face to face drug deals that they have begun to think like the criminals that they regularly conspire with against the people from behind their badges.  "Oh, there he goes again", right?  Well, again back at you, wake up and read the news because, as predicted, stories are now coming out on a very regular and accelerating basis about how cops are not only getting caught but actually getting charged for outright criminal behavior associating with the drug world.  The cops have been bought off.  If you don't take the money, you are not accepted into the club and that is a career limiting move for a cop.  It could also get you killed for being a potential rat.  At the very least you will be ostracized from the fraternity.  Remember, the worst thing you can do to the psyche of a member of a herding species is to set that individual apart from the collective.

The situation is still way out of control but soon the bad cops will be running in full retreat.  I predict that formal organizations will emerge to sniff out and track down and punish police corruption.  I'm not talking about powerless watchdog groups which have been operating impotently for decades as the police state mushroomed into one big stinking cloud of corruption.  Those good watchdog people were basically wasting their time because until the herd is ready to act in unison nothing is going to happen.  On the flip side, when the herd begins to act in unison against a threat like police gone wild, there is no resisting it.  The herd is to the government as the market is to the federal reserve.  As long as the masses are, in aggregate, going along with policy, the policy continues to exist and expand.  But once the worm has turned, and it has, the decline tends to be more rapid than the growth was.  Stair steps up, elevator down applies to the police state as much as it does to the financial markets for they are inextricably intertwined.  Fake money is the energy source of both!

I want to take you back to the original Maine seat belt law link for a second and note a couple things: those moving to un-do the seat belt laws in Maine are up against a very recent massive car pile up in which anyone not wearing a seat belt would have gotten creamed.  So this should be a tail wind for the nanny state and its message of "we are here to help".  Also, complying with federal demands often comes with bribes, generally ear marked for "the children" since this is always the weak point of the herd.  Children are the future of the herd and the herd knows it. In the case of the seat belt laws, some politicians sold a bit of the freedoms of Maine citizens down the river for a paltry 500k USD.  Money is tight all over so any lost money is bad. But now they are willing to give that money up in order to reclaim their freedoms and they are saying it in so many words.   Conservative senator Eric Brakey said, "Government exists to protect us from each other, not to protect us from ourselves".  So you can see that the whole exercise has nothing to do with seat belts and everything to do with a new conservative wave sweeping the country.

As I mentioned before, when people begin to choose freedom and privacy over state-provided money or even over the risk of financial loss from what they already possess and physical harm to themselves, we are mos def in the end game of this fake money scam.  I'll expand that to a more generic statement of herds:  when the herd finally begins to self organize and self govern, the individual members feel said unity within themselves as if they individually have all of the power of the entire herd.  In this case, the individual feels as one with the larger force.

Whereas individual members of herding species feel scared and alone during those times that the herd is operating as many individuals instead of as one self-organized force, each member operates at far less than his individual capacity for self defense and has almost no capacity to defend others.  In this state the individual is easily intimidated and controlled.  But once the herd is unified in thought, each member is actually more powerful that he should rightfully be.  This is because they take more chances, are more confident, and more bold and most of all, lose their fear of the perceived enemy.

This is the mechanism whereby seemingly stupid, ignorant and passive sheeple suddenly turn into massive bull buffalo with horns that are swinging and goring any threat that is in range.  Instead of running away at the LEOs steely glare, snarling teeth and loud roars, the buffalo take them on directly and begin to stomp ass.  I've been showing a video for some time now where water buffalo at Kruger saved a small calf from lions (LEOs).  Here is a different but similar vid.  The lions are great pack hunters when it is 6 or 10 of them to one victim.  But get 2 or 3 or 5 victims to band together and the tables are quickly turned.  And even odds??  The cops and the con men want nothing to do with even odds.  Either they have the massive advantage or they just run away and cower like the cowards they actually are.
  • To any cop that might be reading this who considers himself one of the good ones, here is the test as to whether you are just fooling yourself in order to ease your conscience: do you know of wrong doings of your fellow cops?  Did you turn them in for it in order to make the police force a better and more honest protector of the people?  NO?  Then I guess you are just as corrupt as those doing it, pal.  Why should you get special treatment under the law?  Many of our laws state that anyone who knows about a crime but does not report it is in fact a criminal.  So are you a criminal under this definition?  Yeah, go think about that for awhile.  And while you consider that, keep this also in mind: we the people are coming for those like you.  Clean up your act right now or face the music.
 It's bad enough for the bad guys when the rank and file begins to stand up for itself.  But it gets even worse as those who are part of the con not because they want to but because they felt they had to begin attacking the criminal governing cartel from the inside.  I can see all of this happening right now.  The dis-unification of leadership has never been more apparent.  The eventual repercussions of this are going to be significant and long lasting.  We ain't seen bad yet, but it's coming.  But, like withdrawal sickness, the events to unfold will be signs of an overall healing.  It won't look like healing and it won't feel like healing but it will in fact be healing.  I have very bright hopes for America and for the world after that healing has taken place.  But never forget that there is no true healing until the fake money supply is done away with and replaced with honest money and the complete repudiation of fractional reserve banking which is the underlying cause behind 99% of the world's problems even if only 1 in a million understand this fact.

[JNUG] update

In the backlink I modeled that blue 1 up was complete and that we should be watchful that the retracement into wave would not be a deep vee.  It appears not to have been at least not so far.  As you can see from below, both of the rails of the falling wedge were broken out of and I have two main counts shown below.

The primary count ignores w3 and says that blue 1 broke out of the channel but could not hold and so fell back through into blue 2 but now 1 of 3 broke back out and then back tested from above.  If this is the right model them either it heads up from the open (red path)  or it goes up a little and then comes back down for a full kiss of the falling orange rail (blue path).

It is also possible that a small first wave broken into the channel then back tested down to $26 then crossed the whole body of the falling wedge in wave 3 (marked green w3) and then back down into the channel only to break out again during 3 of 5.

If the latter model is in play, the pullback into blue 2 could be deep vee still down to fill the gap at 26.80 so be sure to us stops here.  In general, a gap up at the open will be immediately bullish but a move down should be considered a wave 2 pullback that will eventually smash its way out during wave 3 up.

Stop out at 28.79.  If you get stopped out get back in above 29.60 OR hope like heck that they give you a $2 discount down to 26.80.  In any case if we are still working on B or 2 or C of 2, just wait 5 waves down for c to express itself before getting back in but be sure to be in JNUG for 3 of 3.

[HUI] update

In the backlink I warned that HUI must continue to go up at this point because failure to do so would quickly break support from which there would be no obvious recovery.  As soon as wave 4 goes into the region of wave 1, the model is bust.

Fortunately, the herd decided to move up to complete a full 5 waves up.  I do not count wave 2 as complete here yet so expect some AM weakness followed by an intraday reversal.  These reversals send signals to the herd and they change sentiment quickly.  Traders only need to get burned once or twice at most following a trend change before they learn that the AM move down is a head fake and a buying op, not a sell signal.

[ASA] update: if you are not into the miners, buy any dip.

In the backlink I provided a model which suggested that you should wait for a pullback to the 38.2 fib since I had counted 5 up and now we needed 3 back.   Here is the model I provided with target price of roughly 11.25:

On Friday the pullback did express itself per the model and then the reversal was very rapid.  There is about a 20% chance that the chart could be trying to get tricky here with green 1 really only being w3 with green 2 thus being wave 4 of 1 and then Monday a double top since wave 5 would be the size of red 1.  That is not my primary model but I wanted to mention it first so that people can be sure to BOLO for it.  If this alternate model hits, the move up on Monday will likely be slow. 

On the other hand, if the primary model shown in green below hits then we should not be at all surprised to see a gap up and then a rapid move up as the rest of blue 3 plays out.

While there are many good reasons why I think this model will very likely play out I also want to caution that blue 3 could also be blue C.  So I will likely bail out after green 5 not to try to grub the 4th wave pull back out of the trade but rather to eliminate risk that it was C instead of 3.  Once it bottoms into blue 4 with a-b-c then buy back in with tight stops and just ride out blue 5.

Friday, February 27, 2015

[JWN] is the poster child for "peak income inequality"

A fractionally reserved money supply is a scam against the middle class because it has the power to increase the money supply outside of the control of the federal reserve.  In other words, the fed urges everyone else to take on debt while it hangs back in a relative sense with the monetary base.  Everyone else thus takes all the risk and the fed gets all the credit (no pun intended) for the debt-fueled prosperity of an expanding money supply.  Then, when everything is all pumped up because of the fed and it senses that more pumping is having negative return on GDP growth, the Wizard of Ozt can waltz in and start lecturing everyone on income inequality as if they actually give a shit.  They don't give a shit about the people but with interest rates ready to rise, the fed has to explain why this is happening and how they are doing it for everyone's good.

Gawd what a con game.

In any case, none of this pump and dump-o-nomics game would be possible without the scam of fractional reserve banking because while lending would still be allowed, issuing loans would not increase the money supply.  Instead of just making up money from thin air to loan out for interest, banks would first have to have people deposit savings in the bank into longer term savings vehicles like CDs, etc. and all loans would be restricted to money that was in such longer term deposits.

 This would restrict loans to existing savings, lower the overall supply of credit and thus increase its price (AKA interest rates).  You cannot have interest rates at zero or even negative as in Euroland without a fake money supply being in controlNobody will actually work to earn money and then lend it out for nothing or even a negative return; in fact, quite the opposite.

The real scam of fractional reserved banking/money supply is that it enriches those with first access to it.  In other words, the already rich get much richer because they are credit worthy to their buddies.  Thus they get large amounts of credit to spend into the economy while prices are low.  The influx of credit based money eventually chases up prices and the elite sell the assets at a higher price than they paid without actually doing any work to increase the real value of the asset.  The only thing that drives prices up in this game is an ever expanding money supply. Thus, without working they end up with huge amounts of debt-fueled profits.  As a result, they buy high end things like $100k cars and expensive clothing and jewelry.  What normal person has a tesla??  Which middle class people shop at Nordstroms?  The answers are nobody and none respectively.

Most rich people don't even understand the mechanics of how it got so easy for them to get richer.  They simply believe they are that much smarter and better than the next guy. Their hour of labor, they believe, is naturally worth 10x or 100x that of a Mexican laborer even though both have to work hard at what they do all day long in order to receive their pay.  Because of this lack of understanding, most rich people will not keep their wealth when the money supply is finally deflated (the dump part of "pump and dump"). 

Fractionally reserved credit is temporary money.  It comes into existence when "special people" like banks loan it out and it evaporates when the debt is either repaid or defaulted on.  Most rich people do not have real assets; they have Madoffian accounts with balances on paper.  As the credit portion of the money supply shrinks we will see that those whose fortunes were built on fiat currency and fractional reserve banking will be hit the hardest.  Do you think the Mexican laborer who has no stake in the credit game will care if the stock markets crash?  I think not.   They will just continue living by the sweat of their brows just like they always have.   It is the liberal monied elite who are going to see the biggest day of reckoning because those who do not cash their paper wealth out of the debt Ponzi before it goes into collapse will be left holding an empty bag of Wimpy promises.  This is true of paper assets and also of high end physical assets.  The Tesla car and the mansion will plummet in value while the small modest home that was never a bubble in the first place will be relatively unaffected.

And so today I want to highlight the chart of Nordstrom's whose ticker [JWN] reportedly stands for John W Nordstrom.  Of course the other common decoding of JWN, Jewish Women's Network, might serve as a better mnemonic for the ticker symbol.  When the credit is actually in the stress phase it will show up in Nordstrom's stock price just like it did the last time.

Once JWN breaks down that top rail then we are going to begin seeing the market talk about liquidity crises again because JWN shoppers will be seeing their assets plummet in value and thus they will massively restrict their shopping habits.  Until there is fear in JWN and IBB, there is no real market fear at all.

[BLDP] update

In the backlink I provided a model that suggested to wait until the 50 fib was hit before taking a position.  I followed my own advice and am now long with a small position at $2.23.  My stop is already in place at $2.17.  I will add to this position during 2 of 3 if 1 of 3 plays out as expected.  For this one I plan to use the breadcrumb stop method.  Bet something with a tight stop and then if the chart plays out per the model, bet more at the next likely EW pullback in the hopes to be in the shares for 3 of 3 with a larger sum than I might normally might commit to this.  The reason this method allows more to be bet is that once I am already up on the first bet I have that as a buffer for gap down reversals on the second.  It is essentially a risk management strategy on a highly volatile small cap stock whose chart suggests a likely next move above $8.40.  Is it guaranteed?  Of course not.  But when you manage risk using the EW principle you can bet much heavier than most people will be willing to and still lose less than most people if the model turns out to be wrong.

The best gamblers at the end of the day are those who manage risk the best.

[$COMPX] update

Per the backlink, $COMPX is getting near the end of a month long rally but patience is still needed with UVXY.   It is impossible to know whether the market is treating the current wave as a 5 wave or 3 wave motive move as both would work under the rules.  3 wave motive is the norm within triangles and wedges and it can be easily argued that we are within one. 

Thus we really have to wait and see what comes next.  Blue W3 below could really be WC of 5 of the triangle leading to a break down of the upper rail that just keeps on going below the lower rail.  We will see it coming by its early wave structure being motive or not but I'm playing it safe and not holding over the weekend at this point.

The model below assumes that we just finished 3 of 5 up.  So either the red or green paths could be taken next week.  I would own UVXY below the top rail and then stop out if it comes back above while looking for another entry point after the 5th wave up is done.

It will be interesting to see if 5k is treated as resistance this time. 

We will know that the sell off is for real when it breaks down the top rail, likely with gusto, and then puts in a motive wave down and then a-b-c back up.  The UVXY buy point for most people should be after that a-b-c happens because then you know exactly where the stop should be set.

Thursday, February 26, 2015

Goldbugs, check out [ASA].

In the ASA backlink I provided a model which appears to be playing out nicely.  Here is the model I provided in that post.  Notice the red oblong which I mentioned would be the first confirmation of the breakout.  To summarize, 5 waves up that break out the top rail which also break out the 38.2% fib was good evidence that wave 3 is likely upon us.

Here is the current snapshot of just WC2.  For now I would be patient and wait for the 38.2 fib (or even the level of the prior 4th) but if it now moves to a higher high then 3 of 1 is upon us.  Also if this small pullback is all that it is going to do into wave 2 then it is a sign that investors have pent up desire to buy such that they can't even wait for a pullback to the 38.2.  This kind of thing often results in very rapid moves up as we saw back in January on this chart.

If ASA is going up a little, JNUG is likely going to come unhinged to the upside.

Watch [$TNX.X] tomorrow...

In the backlink my model suggested that a bottom was in at the 38.2 fib.  If this was a true bottom then we should see a rapid break out of the 23.6 fib to the upside and people should begin to notice very soon now.  Wave 3 is the point of recognition after all.

If the chart crosses north of that red line then the fed is in trouble folks.   Note that this could also pull back to the 61.8% fib to close that gap.  But a move above the 23.6 fib and the ability to hold it strongly suggests that wave 3 up is in progress.

[DRD] update

DRD edged its way up relative to the snapshot in the backlink but I was expecting more out of what is supposed to be the early waves of a 3rd wave move up.  If this does not begin to move up strongly tomorrow then I am going to suspect that the red path will be taken for a very deep vee 2nd wave.

John McCain ashamed of the USA

Liberal GOP senator McCain (yes, that's right, McCain meets my definition of a liberal) says he is ashamed of America for not escalating the war in Ukraine.  After all, we spent so much time fomenting revolution and installing our puppet leaders and now we are not following through to start world war 3 via direct military involvement, right John???

I am so tired of these tired old warmongers.  They will say and do anything in order to keep the military industrial complex fed with tax dollars to oblivion.  I am ashamed of the American people too but not for avoiding direct war in Ukraine even though Obama pushed like Hell to get us to agree to one.  Rather, I am ashamed of us because we haven't discard John McCain into the trash like he deserves.

Take out the trash, America.

Get rid of warmongers who would send your children, AKA the future of America, off to fight and die in foreign wars of aggression. McCain is old so maybe he would like to see WW3 or maybe a Russian nuke go off in the Midwest before he dies.  What has he got to lose?

The new conservative wave will take down many of the unions.

"Right to work" is code for "kill the liberal unions" and Mish reports today that right to work is "sweeping" the midwest. 

Unions are like liberal dems: they tell everyone how they are here to help but eventually they are just another layer of government and taxation authority with its own set of stupid rules.  Initially they seem like a good way to get companies to pay up without leaving for other work (which is the conservative way to demonstrate one's unhappiness with an employer).  But over time they just get more intrusive, more powerful and more greedy.  Pretty soon the company keels over as the parasite kills the host.  When the herd begins to see jobs dry and and not come back they begin to appreciate again those who bring them.

Interestingly enough, even those with unpaid work recognize that union-defined mandatory benefits are a threat to them right now.  For example, the L.A. actor's union is trying to make $9 an hour pay mandatory for small theaters who relay on free actor participation in order to stay open.  But the actors themselves know it will just cause their venue to shut down and so they are telling the union to stop "helping" them like this.  Of course, it shows how desperate the union is.  They need dues and thus they need their members to get paid.  If they don't get paid their is nothing for the pseudo government to take.  The actors in this case are smart enough to resist the parasite before it kills the host and there is no place to go practice their craft where they might get discovered, etc.

It's funny how many things are sooooo not as they appear.  As the prosperity wanes the truth of many non-obvious things will make itself apparent.  Fake money has the power to stand reason on its head.  Ross Perot and Ron Paul were laughed at, Barrack "liar" Obama was worshiped (almost literally) as "the one".  I got news for everyone: the coming conservative wave will make sure Obama is remembered as "the zero".

[AAPL] update

Per the backlink, AAPL is still working on the final few waves of the expanding wedge that I have been tracking for a while now.  It should not be too much longer before it reverses in either the red or green models below.  the C of 5 wave of the expanding wedge is now just a little short of being equal to the A wave as you can see by the identical blue verticals below.  When AAPL rolls over it will likely be in significant company.

[JNUG] update

In the backlink I cautioned to wait for the dip, giving 3 likely retracement points. 

So today it hit the 38.2 fib and then undershot it before crawling back up above and standing on it.  Because of this action we can be sure that the chart knows that these fib levels exist in the collective mind of the herd.  I think tomorrow AM it should kiss the 23.6% fib from below and then bounce back down to hit the 61.8% fib given this is wave 2 of a likely reversal.  Filling that gap would be a serious buy signal.

Of course, if the chart smashes up through the 23.6 with gusto then the odds switch to wave 3 up being in progress but this would be such a great time to fill that gap that a significant rally as I think is coming should not want to leave it open.

We should be able to tell whether this is in wave 3 up by the energy of movement tomorrow.  3rd waves don't generally dally, especially not in something as volatile as JNUG after the big pullback has taken place.

[BLDP] update

Small change to the backlink model is shown below.  I'd like to see the 50 fib hit and held tomorrow.  you can spec buy at $2.20 ish or more conservatively wait for the first breakout confirmation by retaking of the 38.2 fib at the lower red circle or much more conservatively waiting for the first big pullpack after the pink resistance line is broken out of.  Note:  That pink line is likely to be smashed with a gap if this is the bullish chart that I think it is.

Note: if this rallies above red b then that is also a buy signal with tight stops.  Remember, for this model to be correct, the move up from the coming bottom should be powerful and quick as it will be not just a 3rd wave but a 3rd of 3rd.  We really should see a big gap in the chart for that event.

[$COMPX] update

The DJIA and S+P and especially NYSE composite are sucking wind while the $COMPX and $NDX.X are moving up at a measured but nearly relentless pace.  The rally is stretched but it might extend to that overhead resistance before relenting.  This isn't over until $COMPX says it's over.

$COMPX is very nearly up against the upper rail pointed out in the backlink.   That top rail will not likely just be sneaked across/waltzed across lightly at this point - it's too near the psych barrier of 5k.  So one of three things will likely happen which I present in prioritized order that that I think likely to occur:
  • a smallish pullback into pink 4 and then take out the upper rail in 3 of 5 of C with a strained throw over before coming back down into the channel
  • a deeper pullback and then  5 of C just kisses the upper rail from below but cannot overcome both the top rail and the 5k psych barrier.
  • today was the top and the sell off begins tomorrow quickly accelerating below the lower rail of the big wedge.
I just do not see a slow migration above that top rail and 5k as being high odds.  I see it requiring the power of a 3rd and to be honest I would be surprised to see even a 3rd of small 5th do it and hold it for more than a day or two.  Something this big really should need a 3rd of a 3rd OR the 3rd of a larger degree 5th and with all of the overlapping waves since Aug there is little chance that we are in 3rd of 3rd territory.

The further this creeps up without a significant pullback, the more likely that the next pullback begins the selling stampede.  If you never let the earthquake release pressure then when it finally does break free it will be a doozy.

The other model that I am looking at is below.  In this model we are very near the top of black 3 and when it lets go into black 4 it should do so suddenly and rapidly because black 2 was sideways.  Such a move would be very, very trade-able with UVXY!  It reverse at the lower rail or it could pull all the way back to find support at the 38.2, thus breaking down the lower rail for a short period of time before moving back up into the end of the year.  But the run from 2011 has been so powerful and bullish sentiment is so one sided at this point that there is no way it is going to power higher without some kind of powerful and shocking pullback. 

So here is some charting wisdom:  If this just rolls over slowly and then begins to meander lower nonchalantly, that is a bull trap intended to get buy the dippers to come on board.  If that happens then EWI might be right and a much much bigger sell off is ahead.

But, and I think this the far more likely outcome, is that we get a vee top, sudden reversal and then see some panic set in into wave 4.  If that were the case then  it will likely bottom at the 38.2 fib which right now is around 4k.  After that, a final high into the end of the year with the 5k level being taken out by 3 of 5 of that wave.  The top in this case would be 5500.

[UVXY] update

While I got stopped out per the backlink, I still think the next move is likely up.  Hopefully this will start off fairly flat tomorrow AM and I can still get back in at around $18 OR it will break down the lower rail of the rising wedge and do one more wave down to $15.

Either way, the DJIA is weakening in momentum big time and its really only the $COMPX keeping hope alive for investors.

[UVXY] update

Per the backlink, Wednesday's interday reversal marked a tradeable bottom at the very least.  It could have been "the" bottom but there is a suspicious W3 down there so for now I think we have to assume there is one more motive wave down coming. 

So we should just keep bumping our stops.   Since wave 1 or A and 2 or B are both printed, we should now be working on 3 or C.  In fact, the noon peak should have been 1 of 3.  Given that the wave is now higher than that, my stops have been bumped up to $18.33.  If I see a massive run into the close in 5 waves that counts as C of 4 then I will sell into it and then see if a higher high can be made subsequently or if it just begins to fall again.  Hopefully it will fall hard if it does fall but it might put in a double bottom here as well.  The key will be to buy after 5 waves down should all of this forward thinking play out.

[JNUG] update: buy the dip folks.

In the backlink my model suggested that the 76.4% fib would be support which was, as modeled roughly by the TDAmeritrade retracement tool, at $25.42.  The shares had to bottom there else HUI would bust as a motive wave up and I would turn bearish on M+M.  Turns out that they spiked down to $25.40 and have since put in 5 waves up.

Thus we should expect some kind of 2nd wave retracement now.   It is possible that my count is off by 1 wave and that blue 5 is really blue 3 of an extended 3rd wave so BOLO that possibility as well.  The odds of that being the case rise dramatically if the shares break out of $29 from here.  I sold the top rail breakdown which followed the breakout and am looking for a re-entry point.  But keep in mind that once the 5th wave up is in that wave 2 could be pretty deep vee after such a big pullback as JNUG has seen.

Do not be surprised to see JNUG go ballistic soon folks.  But as usual, approach it with calm, not like a lake bass being tempted with a lure jerking around in front of its nose.  In other words, pull yourself back away from the emotional herding aspect of it.   This is far more difficult than it sounds because our brains are wired for herding behavior but with practice comes expertise.

Stop thinking about how rich you might become if you hit the stock market lottery, etc. and just play the turns like a pro, full of calm, full of understanding that with EW in your pocket you actually have the advantage over most other players out there who are just winging it by gut feel.  They are just hoping to get lucky.  You and I are not counting on luck.  We are counting on the veracity of the Elliott wave principle and our skill and ability to count the waves accurately.  We are counting on our discipline in setting stops and in worrying more about keeping our the money we do have vs taking money from some other poor slob.

If we keep this focus, we will win because there are few of us and many of them to profit from in this zero sum game known as "investing".

[S+P500] update

I think this is a good time to take another look at my original model on the S+P.  I saw the potential 4th wave HT as possible many weeks ago.  One of the things I wrote several times is that these 5th waves like to break out and break down in "one fell swoop" which should happen as part of a 3rd wave.

So with this in mind, have a close look at the whole of black 5 below.  Red 1 broke back up into the body of the HT but did not have the power to hold it and so broke back down and out.  But then wave 3 blasted not only back up into the channel but then also through the top rail as well as shown by my red W3 label.  So wave 3 took out both rails in one fell swoop.  Then wave 4 back tested from above.  After that we should expect 5 waves to close out red 5 and interestingly enough we now have blue1-2-3-4-5.

Zooming in,

I will not be at all surprised to find that the peak of the 2009 rally was 2119.59 on the S+P 500.   I don't see anyone in the EW community counting it like this but then again I was the only one that I found who was proposing the 4th wave HT scenario a couple months ago as well.  Nobody knows what the future will bring but the likely outcomes are fairly limited in number.  This is the aspect of EW that so very few really have internalized IMO.  You never hear Prechter on TV say "odds not certainties" and "models go bust as part of the scientific process all the time" and "this is the bust trigger for this model, put it in place at the same time as calling the top or bottom".  EW is nothing without all of these elements being in place.

Wednesday, February 25, 2015

Ballard Power likely launched into wave 3. [BLDP]

Here is the backlink to the existing model.  The model is reproduced below.

Here is the current snapshot and model. 

This has doubled in the past 12 trading days and is now working on 4 of 1 of 3.  This is going to skyrocket soon.  If you are looking for things to go long on as opposed to shorting, consider this for a few k bux.  You saw what it did last time I called the bottom. Well folks, the retracement from that last peak has now gone a-b-c and so I think we have the inclining double bottom in place with deep vee 2nd wave.

What I think might be generating the rapid interest is the generation of electricity using nat gas and fuel cells.  GE is now in the market, will they buy Ballard in order to acquire all their many years of experience and especially all their patents??  Is this why I am also sensing that nat gas plays like Corelab have bottomed?  the US has a huge nat gas supply but we are just sitting on it doing nothing with it. I often tell my friends that those running the US show were smart to just ignore it. Wait until the rest of world begins to run dry on oil before tapping into OUR energy sources.  If I thought of it so did they...

But of course, none of this matters does it?  All you need to know is already in the chart.  Pick a good entry point supported by EW and then use stops.  I see this at $10 in 2016.  Wave 3 should be stronger than wave 1.

I wish I had been checking this more often but to be honest, this is when the safe money begins to step in because we have a-b-c and then a move back up into the region of A.  That means it cannot be a motive wave in the making, must be corrective.  Thus, wave 2 up and not a mania collapse.

This is another cheap stock that will not bk any time soon which can be bought like a nonexpiring call option.  Ballard used to trade at $145.  In the coming bounce it is going to get a nice chunk of that back.  Remember when sunpower SPWR was in the dirt and I called a bottom on it at deep sub $5?  Well, this is likely SPWR 2.0 folks.  Don't throw the bank at it but 2k, 5k?  Yeah, that makes sense especially if you are using the right stops.  This is better than options or even leveraged ETF based on options because you don't have to worry about the time value.

Interesting that [TJX] just announced wage increases right when its chart looks ready to head down.

This is my first post on TJ Max ever.  I only am doing the post because I read the recent article about these low end retailers increasing employee salaries.  I hadn't realized that the share prices of these things had gone exponential like this.  $3 to $69 since government began interfering in the markets to prop up dot bomb....  This is where the wealth inequality statements come from.  Rich people are looking at their share prices in their accounts and chucking about how rich they are.

No wonder mgt is raising salaries.  Of course, exponential charts never hold up forever and no it won't be different just because its a clothing store!  This new salary policy is going to weigh on earnings folks.  A lot of the profits that have been kept by the corporation heads and the shareholders will now instead go to the workers.  This is not going to good for the shares and anyone with a brain of any kind will recognize what this recent salary move, small though it may seem, will eventually do to profits.

Bottom line: GTFO.  Yes it could still climb to ~$72 so that blue 1 and blue 5 are the same length but I would rather miss out on that $3 profit than risk this going down quickly with me in it.

Amazing that these announcements come right near what could be viewed as a 5th of 5 double top.  If it holds then TJX has got an owl starting down on it.  On the left, the olive is 23.6 fib, green is 50 and blue is 61.8. 

Cost push inflation seems building [VelOM]


While I define inflation as a relationship between the money supply and the production of goods and services, the common trait of it is rising prices.  I think that when we see salaries beginning to rise then we need to suspect that prices of the related goods and services will follow.  So very recently, Wal-Mart caved to worker pressure to raise the minimum wage of its masses.  It said it did this because they found that if they paid lower wages then turnover was much higher and turnover is expensive for the company.  So it was actually a cost saving initiative to raise wages above the federal minimum.

And true to the herding nature of man, this leadership move by a major player immediately forced the hands of other low wage retailers to do the same.  "Bahhh!!", said the sheeple, "we don't want to lead but we don't want to get left behind...".  In addition, Wal-Mart is fixing a few perceived problems with its shifts that workers have to work and doing other things that attract and retain workers.  While I would not exactly call that a "wage war", I would call it a 10% raise this year for a lot of people and then another 10% in 2016.  In Texas the minimum wage was $7.25 and so the 2015 jump to $9 is more like a 24% bump in 2015.

Of course what will happen next is that Wal-Mart, which is the only place that its employees can afford to shop, will now have to raise prices in order to make up for it.  So this is really something of a PR stunt but it should cause the rabble to put down their pitchforks for the time being.  But if the workers get wise they will just be asking for more and more pay in order to stay ahead of this "cost push" inflation and that is where it will eventually become a problem.

Jim Sinclair has been going on for quite some time about the coming "cost push inflation".  Others have been talking about deflation.  Some things have clearly deflated like oil, gold and silver.  But other things are starting to catch a bid like natural gas.  So it is difficult to say what will be a beneficiary of a bout of inflation.  Regardless, deflationists need to be aware of three things:

1) deflation never lasts forever!  the natural order of fake money is for the con men to print or conjure up more of it.  Also, the ultimate inflation or hyperinflation is where people just lose confidence in paper even if government is not printing more.  All paper money eventually goes worthless.
2) deflation can be selective.  I expect stocks and house prices and anything else normally bought on credit to suffer but if you think food providers are going to lower their prices much, think again.
3) inflation has been kept in check for the past 20 years by a collapse in the velocity of money as you can see from the chart below.  That chart says that 5 waves down have transpired or nearly so.  The most recent wave down began in Q3 2010.  Once it bottoms we have to expect, at the very least, 3 small waves back up to the level of the prior 4th.  In other words, I expect the velocity of money to pick up soon and this is going to reverse itself from being a deflationary tail wind to an inflationary one.  I don't know that this is the major cause of inflation or deflation (until it becomes a crackup boom, that is) but it should not be ignored by deflationists.  Perhaps these salary increases are the tip of that iceberg.  Note that gold started dumping in 2011 just about the same time that wave 5 down began on the velo m2 chart.

[DRD] update

My DRD model at the backlink was followed exceptionally well and that is potential evidence that M+M are about to take flight.  Here is the model from that post

The current snapshot is slightly compressed on the horizontal scale (60 minute bars vs 30) but the pattern should be clear:   DRD went back down to the 61.8 fib in order to retrace wave 1 up and to fill that gap (which was the essence of the model).  If my model continues to be correct, the next wave up should be a powerful 3rd wave and I think we will see gaps up in DRD because we saw them in 3 of 1.

I model DRD to rise to $8-$10 by the end of the year, worse case.  Yes, I know it seems impossible but it is still LIKELY going to happen even if EWI is right about gold working on a large "B" wave instead of being in a new long term bull market like Avi thinks.  The reason is that the past chart has a significant impact on how the chart will fare in the future.  The likely bounce range for these shares is $8-$22 per the pink box.  DRD  has just now, I believe, unwound its mania that began in Nov 2001.  It is very common to see a stock like this get a massive bounce after doing this.  In the case of DRD, it has just got its new, more efficient gold collection process in place and when the price of gold goes up to allow it, they will be paying out  large chunk of their earnings in the form of dividends.  This is going to get the attention of dividend investors folks.

One more thing: the perfect time to buy into a stock is right after you think wave 2 is finished and there are two reasons for this.  First, you have two good waves that look like motive followed by corrective.  If the correction keeps coming you will easily know the trigger points for stopping out. In this case, it closed today at $1.96 and the stop is $1.91.  So all you risk is a nickel (~2.5%) for huge potential upside.  These are the kinds of low risk, asymmetric payout bets that can pad your wallet quickly.  I'm not saying this can't go a bit lower.  I am saying that it is not likely to do so given the wave count and that if it does it should not drag you down with it if you play your cards smart.  This is light years different than "faith based investing" or gut feel investing which most people do.  Talk about bringing a gun to a knife fight...

Twitter Delicious Facebook Digg Stumbleupon Favorites More