[UVXY] intraday reversal

In the backlink I expected a bottom in the $18 range and then a strong move back up to at least the level of the prior 4th.  Below is the current snapshot.  They ran it down hard into a rapidly falling extended 5th wave.  I do not know if this will be 5 of C or 5 of 3.  For now I continue to model this as the bottom of a 3rd wave meaning quick rebound in a-b-c fashion and then a turn back down into lower lows.  Today's reversal went from more than 7% red back up to a couple percent green.  That's a pretty good sign that a significant bottom is in so you wait for 5 up and then 3 back to the level of the prior 4th and then jump in for 3 or C up almost risk free.

In the model below I am doing the most conservative thing possible.  I am treating the whole move down from early Feb as a-b-c. In other words, I am playing it long for now but assuming it will eventually go lower. 

The key indicator as to whether this is right or wrong is that red horizontal line.  If the wave goes above it then you can be pretty sure that the next stop will be a higher high than $35.  It is, in fact, possible to count the current move from Feb as 5 waves down so we might not get that lower low.  This is why I keep a hot eye on the near term count.  Putt for dough. 

But after the shellacking UVXY has taken of late, we really should expect at least a 38.2 fib bounce.