Looking at Goldcorp [GG] in order to cross reference ABX suspicions.

My recent discovery of W3 in the waves of ABX have got me concerned about M+M potentially needing one more final move down before the bear market is over.  That move down could be huge in percentage terms for even the biggest players so if I am right about this it is a pretty substantial discovery.   My only tools is charts so today I want to look at the biggest gold miner in the world : Goldcorp whose Ticker, GG, should tell you a good deal about those running the company ("G" is old school illuminati).

In the first GG chart below we see something that should be very concerning to any EWer out there.   The detail is not high enough for you to really tell but trust me, I zoomed in and the red circle is the lowest bottom and then the blue is just a touch higher and the green bottom is between red and blue.  So the notion of red circle being start of wave, the first peak being a or 1 and the blue circle being b or 2 is fully supported by the wave levels.  So if blue a can be a or 1, and if blue b can be b or 2 and if blue c can be 3 or c then why did I leave the motive numbers off and stick with the corrective letters in my labels?

You probably already see it now: if the current pullback were wave 4 then it should not have traced into the area of blue 1 (blue a) below.  So this count which assumes early Nov was the bottom is certainly wrong.

Yes, it is possible that blue B was actually a slightly short stroked 5th as shown below.  Now how the wave down from mid Jan busted down through the 38.2 during a strong wave and then back tested it from below without breaking through.  So I think the 50 fib will be hit best case in this scenario.  Of course, the 61.8 is always possible too but after that the hopes of this being a motive wave up crumble to very low levels in my book and I would be looking for an entry point into JDST instead of JNUG in that case.

To me, the model below is a stretch.  I just don't see many short stroked 5ths and so I'm always skeptical of them even though they are part of the EW official guidelines.

In the hyper bullish case, we could be doing the stutter step 1-2, 1-2 as shown below.  Again, it is possible and if that is the case it justifies the breakdown into blue 1.  But in this hyper bullish case we should see a rapid move up begin after a small move down to the 50% fib (again, because of the gusto-backed breakdown of the 38.2 and the back test of it from below pointed to by green arrows below).  Since this chart really represent confidence in government's ability to continue running their funny money game, it would take a real faux pas by the establishment for this model to occur.

Based on all this, I have to choose a primary model and at this point and until I get further data I'm going with the bearish model for two reasons:
- Always pick the model that saves capital and avoids losses.  In other words, when in doubt like I am right now, do the conservative thing!
- The bearish model would just crush the gold community which is now coming alive.
- One more smash down would send the gold bears into a rabid tizzy which would make them easy targets to fleece once that one final wave finishes.  In this way, the max number of market participants would get screwed coming and going and this is one of the purposes of the markets.

My detailed primary count is thus below.  I'm going to be bearish until some trigger occurs telling me I got it wrong.  I would rather miss out on initial profits than ride the slope of hope down into big losses which is what most gold bugs will do if the model below is correct.

SO I want to address one final issue which is that of whether I HOPE it will go up or down.  In other words, which side am I rooting for. 

The answer is, and it has to be, that I don't care about that because it is an emotional herding thing that can only color otherwise intelligent analysis.  I will gladly change my future predictions if the chart data warrants!!

What I DO hope for is that I get the count reasonably right in the first place or bail out before many losses have been made if I counted wrong.  Remember, right or wrong is not good or bad, talented or foolish here.  There is a high degree of luck involved.  EW do not allow the certain prediction of the future, only an awareness of what the herd will likely do going forward based on what it just did.  This is why not even the best EW analysts are always right - how can you be certain about something that the herd itself has not even decided upon yet?  This is the failing of most EWers and most EW watchers.  They judge the wrong things when measuring goodness of the system.   I've stated this before using the old golf saying, "drive for show, putt for dough".  Getting longer term predictions right is as much luck as skill.  The REAL skill in EW analysis, that which will either save you from losses or get you into the profits the soonest, is analysis of the short term game as I have done above.  The real skill is in knowing when your suspicions and fear should be rising exponentially and then moving out of harm's way, side stepping the bad stuff and then being right there when the reversal happens with plenty of cash in hand to take advantage of it instead of having gotten depleted by hanging onto false hope against the ticker.
 
I also hope that I understand the implications of these chart moves when I see them. In other words, I think a near term collapse for gold and miners right now sets us up for Avi's model of massive 3rd wave moves up over the coming decade or more whereas moving up right here and now is better for shorter term gamblers who are playing the B wave of the Prechter model whose eventual target is far, far lower.

All I can say is, use stops and don't get upset if you miss out on some short term profits by having used stops in a less than perfect way (perfection is not easy!).  But do get HUGELY disappointed at yourself if you take on significant losses by failing to have valued preservation of capital over pursuit of profit.