[$TNX.X] update

In the backlink I modeled the next move to be down to the 38.2% fin at $19.60.  It looks like it could go there at the open tomorrow.  A trip down the the 50 fib is always possible but less likely at this time.  Yellen has made her views clear: she is not going to raise rates until the market demands that she does.  And so the market will demand it.

But you will notice that "rate hike in June" has, per the link, magically transformed without any explanation whatsoever, to "an announcement, which could come as soon as March".  You can see how she is trying to manage expectation based on stuff that has already happened.  So there is now precedent for a fed announcement in March, it will no longer be considered an emergency move but you will begin to see them move with urgency all of a sudden.  They are watching the 10 year folks.  They have EW analysts on their staff.  They know that the herd is turning and she wants to get ahead of it.  Still, she will lag because she does not understand that the next wave up is not just any old wave, it is going to be a 3rd of 3rd.  So expect her little march announcement to come sooner rather than later.

Yellen is a con woman and the bond market is now about to call bullshit.  Rates are going up because the herd is done with loaning money at zero interest and the EW charts have been predicting this for some time now with reasonable accuracy.