M+M at a very important juncture. Be careful. [SLV]

Since we are operating under a fake money supply that is highly manipulated both in the public and private sectors, near term discovery of fair market price for the dollar is very difficult if not impossible.  In the long run, the answer is already known: all unbacked paper money is worthless.  But the path to this truth will be twisty (AKA volatility).

In any case check out the log chart of silver.  The recent peak kissed the upper rail but could not break through.  The action since could either be a-b-c or 1-2-3.  A break out of the upper rail, especially with gusto, will tell us that the rally is real but there is a very real possibility that the recent bottom was only a of 5.  In that case, the kiss of the upper rail would be b of 5 and a fall below that rising support line would be c of 5.

The safe strategy is to not be all in on metals or miners until this resolves itself.  That can mean carrying no position or carrying a small position knowing that it could go deeply underwater for a few weeks or even months.

If the top rail cannot be broken out of, the next two likely stopping points are the black circles.  One mid channel, the other at the lower rail.  Of course, the lower rail with throw under is also possible. 

If you decide to hold for now, the clear sell indicator would be a fall below that lower rail.

If you decide to sell and wait for more data. the buy signal is a break out of the top red rail.

The market is purposely making this difficult.