Sunday, February 15, 2015

[AIG] is ready to begin its final collapse.

Bankers can't commit usury unless people take out loans, AIG is now about to collapse because people are paying off loans or defaulting on them, not taking out new ones.  Before I go on, let me explain why I feel that "usury" applies here.  The online dictionary definition for the word is:

u·su·ry
ˈyo͞oZH(É™)rÄ“/
noun
noun: usury
  1. the illegal action or practice of lending money at unreasonably high rates of interest.
    • archaic
      interest at unreasonably high rates.
First off, I still use the supposedly archaic meaning.  When I say that something is usurious I do not mean lending at rates that break the laws of man.  I mean the old archaic definition of lending at unreasonably high rates.

Second, the term "unreasonable" is relative.  If a man lends out something that he actually worked to create then he has sweat and blood and time invested into that asset.  Such an asset should rightfully be loanable at pretty high rates in order to handle the fact that a certain number of loans will go bad.  Otherwise, it treats a man's stored labor as worthless and that is just bullshit pure and simple.

But what if I was to loan out something that I did not in fact ever earn, never worked one minute of time for and whose creation never caused a dot of perspiration to dot my brow?  What if I could just create "assets", or something that people would mistake for assets, from thin air?   Well, the interest on these kinds of assets should be very low.  Even 0.25% should be too high.  After all, if someone defaults on you, you really lost nothing since you never had something in the first place.  Of course, since they still trade in the economy as if they have value, such "assets" do have value.  But the value is not created from thin air; it is simply stolen from everyone else who has legitimate assets in the system.

I hope people can understand the logic here.  Fractional reserve lending is just pushing papers around, it creates no value.  Fractional reserve lending is a total scam whereby most of the "assets" loaned never existed, were never worked for.  They were simply instantiated from thin air.  But then interest rates are charged as if the loaned asset was actually earned, same as you and I when we go to work each day.  Those fake assets compete with our real assets in the loan market and the result is stupidly low interest rates which is exactly what we have today.

We are now in the early stages of a global deflationary collapse.  The stock and bond markets have been treated as safe havens but the rising interest rates tell me that demand for the existing cash is increasing while the AIG news is telling me that credit is being reduced.  The AIG chart is now showing signs of entering a bear market and I think it will BK this time around.  The AIG article tells me that AIG has now reached peak credit.  Its asset base is now contracting so quickly that profits collapsed 66% in a single quarter.  In response, the CEO tempted those would would keep the shares to stay on board while he gets his emergency dividend together and this created the a-b-c countertrend rally into blue 2.  Soon it will roll over into blue 3 because only a fool would care about a few percentage points of divvy when the profits just collapsed 67% (66.6??).  Not only that they collapsed, it was an unexpected collapse.  So the company is not really in control of its earnings else it would have prepped investors better.  That means high risk for investors and as such they need to assign it a PE that takes such risk into account.

Don't cry for the bankers folks.  Their demise is a healing for the rest of us even though it mos def means hard times are coming for us all first.  Withdrawal from drug use is never painless and credit is a psychologically addictive societal drug.

In any case, my wave count is below.  Enjoy!


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