[S+P500] update

I think this is a good time to take another look at my original model on the S+P.  I saw the potential 4th wave HT as possible many weeks ago.  One of the things I wrote several times is that these 5th waves like to break out and break down in "one fell swoop" which should happen as part of a 3rd wave.

So with this in mind, have a close look at the whole of black 5 below.  Red 1 broke back up into the body of the HT but did not have the power to hold it and so broke back down and out.  But then wave 3 blasted not only back up into the channel but then also through the top rail as well as shown by my red W3 label.  So wave 3 took out both rails in one fell swoop.  Then wave 4 back tested from above.  After that we should expect 5 waves to close out red 5 and interestingly enough we now have blue1-2-3-4-5.

Zooming in,

I will not be at all surprised to find that the peak of the 2009 rally was 2119.59 on the S+P 500.   I don't see anyone in the EW community counting it like this but then again I was the only one that I found who was proposing the 4th wave HT scenario a couple months ago as well.  Nobody knows what the future will bring but the likely outcomes are fairly limited in number.  This is the aspect of EW that so very few really have internalized IMO.  You never hear Prechter on TV say "odds not certainties" and "models go bust as part of the scientific process all the time" and "this is the bust trigger for this model, put it in place at the same time as calling the top or bottom".  EW is nothing without all of these elements being in place.