Wednesday, February 18, 2015

Risiing treasury will crush junk bonds [JNK]

Junk bonds have taken their sweet ass time rolling over but my model says that they will very soon begin making up for lost time as a 3rd of 3rd unfolds per the red model below.  Perhaps we are in the calm before a Greek storm but there are good odds that this will reverse here having almost filled the gap shown.  As usual, trigger levels are useful  When this falls below the 38.2% fib line then it is going to pick up speed because the asset in question, junk debt, is essentially worthless when every deadbeat creditor decides to follow Greece into forced haircuts by the creditors.  First Greece and then Spain is how it looks.  Germany and France's little vendor finance scam is falling apart just like I have saying for several years now.  When not if.

Watch JNK.  When it loses support so will the markets and with the 10 year rising the yields on this junk get less and less attractive to institutional investors who are only parked here because the interest rate on AAA debt is so low.



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