[$TNX.X] update

The model in the backlink is still valid even though today's bounce was a bit higher than expected.  A higher high than pink 1 suggests that red a was really just the 4th wave or more likely that wave pink 3 up has begun.

There are alternate counts but much less likely than that shown below or that mentioned in words above.   Target price for the next wave up should the breakout occur, is $26.  So this is not inconsequential movement here.  One advantage of playing the rates is that the chart seems to have cleaned up and is no longer choppy and difficult to read.  If HUI cannot hold support tomorrow I'm going to begin focusing more on TNX.  What would be great would be if TNX breaks out coincident with HUI/GDXJ starting the next wave up.  In other words, if the moment of recognition arrives (i.e. the 3rd wave up of TNX) then it could serve as the catalyst for HUI reversal upward this time.  Next time it might not have this relationship.

Bottom line is that there are places to make money if M+M are not yet in the uptrend that I modeled them to be.