[ASA] update

In the backlink I modeled that ASA would likely end up tracing out its 2nd wave down by filling the gap just above $11 OR going down to the 50% fib which was also the level of the prior 4th.  Here is the chart from that post.



Today we are just about right there so it is time to begin watching this (and all M+M) closely for a reversal back up.  It will likely bottom in some place and time within the blue circle.  We will know that the breakout has begun by a move up above the 38.2 fib and if it happened with a gap up then it would be icing on the TA cake.  Another common way to reverse here would be an AM reversal  where it spikes down in the AM and then is back green before noon and then closes green.

Be careful about buying too early because it could spike down to the level of the prior 4th at $10.80 in order to scare out the last week hands before reversing back up.  In fact, if I saw a spike down below the lower orange rail that hits $10.80 I would be very tempted to buy it with tight stops (like $10.70....) OR to then wait until it comes back up into the channel of the falling wedge which I count as WC2.

I don't know the future any more than the next guy but I do know that when I see a motive wave up like that into mid Jan and then a very corrective wave back down as seems to be ending now, I expect at least one more wave up that should be at least the same size as the first wave.  It will either be a C or a 3.  There is little doubt that the wave into mid Jan on ASA was a 5 wave motive move.   It gives me hope for all M+M to see this case.