While researching alternative EW counts for M+M I came across a chart by Sid over at Elliottwavepredictions.com and I posted about it here. Sid's model for what is essentially a proxy for miners going by the ticker ASA had predicted a final bottom at $9.75. At the time (11-5-2014), ASA had fallen to $10.25.
So here is the chart of ASA today and as you can see, Sid's bottoming price was indeed hit. If Sid is correct, and he might well be, a new massive bull market is going to play out for M+M. Go back to Sid's model and you will see that he models ASA as being in a long rising wedge, having just hit wave 4. So now up to wave 5 over the next 15 years with the potential for a throw over at the top. If ASA is up, all M+M will be up.
This chart proves nothing but those with correct EW predictions must be listened to because they are in tune with the wave count of those issues that they are correctly modeling over time. Sid nailed this bottom to within 25 cents and that is pretty darned close. He also provides a detailed, wave by wave count and I reviewed it to be reasonable.
Bottom line, the heavy chop in silver that is busting early counts could just be signaling us that a huge breakout is coming and the market has a need to throw off as many from the scent as possible before the motive strides begin.
Since we are talking about ASA, here is my current model for it. A move above pink B invalidates the model in a bullish fashion unless it is more chop. A move above blue 1 suggests that wave 3 is already in progress.
Saturday, February 7, 2015
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