[$TNX.X] critical juncture

In the backlink I posted that it looked like 3 waves had occurred.  Zooming in we see that the chart has moved a bit higher but the basic question still remains: is this 3 waves up or has it morphed into 5 waves up now?  It really could go either way so far.  We will know by the depth of the next pullback.  If it only pulls back to ~$19.50 and then hits a higher high then the existing thing was 3 waves and the higher high will be 5 waves up.  If however it falls back below ~$18.35 then the odds begin to stack up against the current move being motive.  It certainly does look motive though, doesn't it.   That's where the odds lie still.

If this move, which you must realize that Yellen is following closely, turns motive, then expect Yellen to declare the economy is in great shape and thus she will pull in the mid year rate increase.  If she does that just remember where you heard this first and why it is happening: face saving by the wizard of fed.

Speaking of which, I have mentioned in this blog many times that L. Frank Baum who wrote the Wizard of Oz was clearly talking about the money supply in his story.  I mean, come on, what else in the world comes in the form of yellow bricks than money.  Also, what the Hell is an Oz?  An abbreviation for Ozymandias?  Perhaps.  But my money, no pun intended, is that it was a reference to the ounce.  We would have known for sure had it been called The Wizard of Ozt!  In any case, here is a more detailed description of the symbology in the story, much of it tied to the period in which it was written.  No folks, it was not just a children's story...