[$COMPX] update

In the backlink I posted about a potential WC model in $COMPX but with no real commitment to it.  It was just something to watch for.  The index broke out to higher highs.  The conventional view is that the current wave is likely 3 of 5.  In that view, wave 1 broke out the top rail but could not hold it, wave 2 fell back below and then wave 3 broke out with gusto even to including a gap in the 3rd of 3rd position.  It also finished Friday with what could be a rising wedge, again bringing to mind the potential for it to only be a 3rd wave.  So that is the primary count and the blue path shows how it should move.

But there is an alternate count which is less obvious and so that is the count I show in this post.  Again, blue count is primary even though the red path has the wave count kiltered toward it.  There are two things that made me even think about the alternate count. The first is the presence of what appears to be an expanded flat.  The second was that so near a major turn I would expect the count to get tricky.  Time will tell but we should at least see selling from the open on Tuesday regardless of whether the path goes red or blue.  Once we see 5 waves down OR and break up the upper rail we can be sure that the reversal is real.  Of course, I won't wait that long to bet against this market but I will use tight stops.

One thing to know: if this goes the blue path then short with everything you got because there is really only one nearly risk free time to do this and it is after an HT bottoms into B or 4 and then prints 5 waves up.  The EW principle says HTs are always penultimate.