[RUSL] update - critical juncture alert

In the backlink I provided red and blue paths that I expected the shares to follow.  The message was clear: a move up into the $27-28 range and then a massive reversal back down to create a new lower low than the mid December low.

Today we almost got there but it looks like a bit of follow through is possible on Monday in order to completely fill the gap shown below.  Also, it looks like a triangle formed.  Of course that little bit could take place in the extended trade today and thus not show up on my charts so it would be risky IMVHO to try to grub that last dollar out of the trade by holding over the weekend.

Monday will be very key to the short term fate of RUSL.  The shares are likely near a pullback one way or the other.  On one hand, the pullback would only be to the level of the prior 4th in a controlled a-b-c sell off. If that occurs and then this breaks out to a higher high past the gap fill then good things are likely in store for RUSL holders.  But my interpretation of this wave count says that the whole ying yang style bounce that has occurred since December is corrective in an a-b-c style that will most likely peak very soon and then head down hard into march. 

If that happens then be on hyper alert for that bottom because if you thought the gains from wave 3 down back up a-b-c to wave 4 were good then wait until wave 5 is in and we see an a-b-c back up to $30 from a likely bottom in the $4-$8 range.

By the way, the Ukrainian cease fire that has been broadly attributed to the rise in Russian shares is commented upon by someone who has gained a track record for truth telling by Mish: a certain Colonel Cassad of the rebels.  Mish does not give out trust easily so we know that Cassad's facts have been the best available.  Cassad's comments on the recent accord are as follows (yellow highlights mine):

"A full-fledged document on the settlement did not happen, the question hung in the air of the Crimea. In general, in my opinion, if the truce will not be torpedoed right now, we will have another respite and renewal of intense fighting. From what discussed and what was signed and that in my opinion can be done - a truce, divorce and heavy weapons exchange of prisoners. Everything else at this stage not realistically fulfillable, even without taking into account the expected action by the US escalation of the conflict."

Bottom line is that Cassad sees this as a breather, not an end to the conflict.  The chart supports Cassad's view in this matter.  Be careful with RUSL folks, use stops!  Better yet, sell speculatively into this strength and then wait for the first major pullback to see if it is corrective or motive.