Wednesday, February 11, 2015

Interest rate rally continues, wait for the 2nd wave pullback [TMV]

Backlink.  The modeled break out in interest rates looks quite motive at this point.  I would not chase them.  The powers that be will get scared soon and try to buy them back down but the market will step in and overpower them.  This, I think, is why 2nd waves generally tend to be 50% fib or 61.8% fib events and the coming pullback in interest rates will very likely be a 2nd wave.

I am patiently awaiting the 1st wave to play out and the 2nd wave pullback to confirm the model before making a heavy bet.  I am using the time to research how to play and perhaps TMV is just the ticket.  I suspect that the next move up will be to about red 4 or $80.  That's a pretty good move considering that the underlying assets are bonds.  Since this is a leveraged fund, it bleeds value over time so it would not surprise me to see a 3 wave move to $80 which consisted of an a wave move to ~$40 where it would encounter resistance as shown.  Then a 38.2 fib pullback followed by a powerful C wave thrust to ~80.  If that B wave is played right (sell after 5 waves up...), it could be nearly a 4 bagger by early 2016.

The potential could be a good deal higher, this is my conservative model.  If you know of a highly leveraged play that is somehow guaranteed to go up when interest rates go up but which does not have time value associated with it, please leave a comment so I can research it.

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