[DRYS] at or near a significant bottom.

Back in late October of 2013, I first wrote about DryShips, a Greek dry bulk shipper.  While I despise the CEO, I sensed that some kind of new uptrend was happening.  The price then was $2.91.  To make a long story short, I subsequently warned of a near term peak @ 4.70 after which I expected, at the minimum, a large percentage sell off.  The shares then peaked at about $5 and went into freefall.

Today DRYS trades at ~ $1.  Remember, this was once trading over $130.  It's a great testament to my common statement that stock have no intrinsic value.  In any case, supposedly stronger players like GNK have gone belly up.  While I don't put a lot of stock in fundamentals as a market timing tool, DRYS has gotten hammered down to Great Depression valuations.  The main two I think most people should look at here is PS and PB.  They are obscenely low and seem to be pricing in the immediate collapse of the Eurozone into regional war.  Since that is not likely to happen just yet and since DRYS just made a large installment on its debt I think they are in a position to keep making payments for awhile.  If commodity price rises like it seems to be ready to do, DRYS will be a leveraged beneficiary. 



But this has been true for some time now.  So why am I only now suggesting that it is worth picking some of this up at this point?  Yeah, you guessed it, the only real market timing worth a crap (AKA Elliott waves) suggests that a significant bottom is near and that the bounce should be huge. Price target $11 (the level of the prior 4th of the same degree).  It could have yet another wave down which could take take it down 50% from here so if you are buying any size, stops at .93.  That is a potential 10% loss from here but I am going to treat this like a nonexpiring call option (i.e. a long term hold) and buy a measly 1000 shares tomorrow and then if it will do me the favor of falling 50% more then I will triple down.  they loved it at $5 just 1 year ago.  Now they hate it at $1 even though the debt payment that everyone was so worried about was paid.  Go figure.