Friday, February 13, 2015

[MSFT] update

In the backlink I gave this model.  The main feature of this worth noting is that it depicts a bounce back up to the level of the prior 4th.



Since then we got a lot of sideways action that could be taken in a couple of ways.  First off on the left chart we have a clear HT during 2010 and 2011.  According to EW rules that can only mean we are working on a large C wave since 2011 because HT are always penultimate.  The question now, and it is by no means answered yet, is whether the pullback from the top rail was the beginning of the breakdown or whether it was just a normal pullback to the lower parallel rail (4 of C).

The reason nobody knows the answer to this for sure is because the herd has not decided yet.  So now we are at a point where we bounced back up to the level of the prior 4th on what could be counted as an a-b-c move.  If it's going to reverse here and head down it should do so tomorrow or Monday at the latest else short should worry that the red or red/blue path shown on the left will be taken.  Note the triangular looking structure that preceded the gap down.  That could be warning that the recent drop, which happened without broader market confirmation, was just a 4th wave correction and not the start of the real bear.






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