Friday, February 6, 2015

[MSFT] update

Here is the backlink.  Below is a side by side of yesterday's model and today's action.  So for now I have to believe that the model on the left is intact.  The EW play here is simple:  Short MSFT ASAP and cover if it finds a higher high than Friday's high?  Does it get simpler that that?

Short MSFT not because of fundamentals, not because of news, not because of gut feel or intuition (which will ALWAYS cause you to lose money in this game).  Short the shares for no other reason than the fact that you now have access to a working EW model as to how the herd is likely to move  Short the shares because of the high reward vs. almost no risk that the EW method provides.  The trigger for covering the short is built into the model.  If the trigger is crossed it might not mean the shares don't go down anyway but it does mean that something unexpected happened and that is the real power of EW.  You know what should happen according to the model and on those times when the expectation doesn't happen (what model of a living system can ever be 100% right???) you know almost immediately and you GTFO of your position for pennies and mean literally pennies lost.

Monday is going to be important to this model.  Selling on the shares must  commence almost right from the opening bell for this model to hold.

Remember folks, successful gambling is more about risk management than anything else.  Get the odds in your favor by creating EW models.  If you don't have time to do it yourself then I suggest investing in EWI or other EW services out there which have a good track record for being able to read the wave counts and then just stick to the issues that they cover. 

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