[MSFT] update

Here is the big picture for MSFT with the primary count labels on it.  The recent pullback from the $50 level was far from unexpected as you can see from this link.  The chart recently hit a support level defined by a prior trend line and the parallel line to the upper channel rail.  A break down of this lower rail will be very bearish not only for Microsoft but for the entire market.  This picture shows just how "stair steps up, elevator down" can work. 

Having said that, without more data an alternate, more bullish near term model is also possible as shown below.  I must say that this model is full of the volatility that one should expect from a corrupt global monetary system which has investors not sure whether to $hit or get off the pot.

I think that the longer term trend will be unmasked very soon.  In the backlink I provided the following model which indicated that I expected a 3 wave bounce off of that support rail as shown below.  The bounce would be green 4.  The model then shows another wave down that would be green 5 which would be the end of blue 3.  In other words, blue 3 breaks down the lower support rail in this model, something that could be expected of a 3rd wave but which would have added confidence if it could have been within the 3rd of 3rd.



In any case, long term views are all good and fine but we have to work with the data as we get it.  Drive for show (make good calls on long term trends) but putt (correctly trade the short term trends) for dough.  This will be especially true in a period of heightened volatility!  So today's data shows that the MSFT model is playing out as expected.  The bounce that has occurred so far could turn out to be WC4 or we could get one more small bounce up to the level of the prior 4th but much higher than that and I would start to worry about this model and any higher than green 1 means it needs to be abandoned completely. 

On this short I would set stops at $44.  Past that, the odds of more short term bearish play diminish rapidly.  So it really is crunch time here and not just for MSFT.  I do not see how $COMPX continues to go up each day if MSFT breaks major support of the lower rail.  So Yellen, you have to keep buying $COMP, S+P and DJIA futures illegally but you also need to begin to buy shares of falling giants like MSFT lest your ponzi collapse on you.  Yep, you have to keep buying futures and shares illegally and putting them in a dark corner of the federal reserve balance sheet unless you want complete panic to begin.  But don't worry, after we catch you doing this (and we eventually will) the jail time should be minimal once the collapse does finally arrive.  I wouldn't expect to see you get more than 10 years in the slam for it.