Friday, February 13, 2015

The marginal players are getting hit the first and eventually the worst... [SDP]

This is my first post on the DJ utilities and I'm afraid that the news is not good for longs.  SDP is the leveraged, inverse DJ utilities ETF (AKA "utes" if I want to sound all cool and wall st savvy....).  Personally, I think the fundamentals should be signalling better profits for the utes.  I think profitability of this sector is tied to oil prices since that is a major input cost and you can see from the chart below that the inverse ETF got hammered as oil was falling.

But now oil has bottomed and while the oil chart has not yet clearly put in 5 waves up, the utes have put in a clear 5 waves down (which is why SDP has 5 waves up or nearly so).


The play here should be so completely obvious as to be almost like taking money from an ATM.  If that sounds arrogant then watch and see.   This is not 3 waves up off the bottom to the level of the prior 4th, folks, it's 5 waves.  That's motive, not corrective.  So, wait for this to peak (it might climb to 53 and then come down OR the 3rd wave is extending and what I marked as blue 5 is actually blue w3.  I don't know which it is yet.  So just let it continue to play out and then let's see what the retracement looks like. 

IFF it is 3 waves down to the level of the prior 4th then get I think any of your shorting tools: SDP, UVXY, TVIX, FAZ, etc. will finally begin to take off with gusto.  FAZ, which currently trades at $12.37, has been a real sleeper and I believe that soon it will make up for lost time.  I'd like to see a close below the old low of around $12.05  in the next 1-2 weeks before jumping in on the ground floor of that one (after the 5th wave down completes of course...)

Of all the leveraged ETFs it is my suspicion that ETF % gains per unit time, at least early on, could possibly end up being the greatest in FAZ simply because it has gotten almost no attention AND because when banks begin to warn about liquidity and insolvency then it is already too late - they never admit anything until well past the time when they are simply left no choice but to fess up.  Banks don't warn on profits really, they warn on solvency.  They are bean counters who cover up the Ponzi scheme with accounting tricks, etc. in order to continue collecting a pay check right up until they go under.  Bankers are the most corrupt and evil assholes in the corporate kingdom.

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