It looks like casinos, using LVS as a proxy, are on final approach to a massive collapse. Casinos are not conservative folks. They will get slammed because people just don't have the money to waste anymore like that. The EW chart is very clear on this matter. In the case of LVS there might still be some runway higher but this C of 2 wave should peak very soon as shown by the target price box below. Once this happens I expect a big gap down as result turn out "worse than expected" by Wall St. Although not any kind of requirement, it is not beyond expectation that the DJIA begins wave 1 down of the bear around the same time that LVS begins wave 3 down.
Right now most legacy TA guys would be saying "BREAKOUT!!!, BUY BUY BUY". Elliott wavers will take one look at this chart and say "FAKEOUT!!! Sell into the peak of wave 2! Collapse on deck!".
In terms of market timing, the C wave is often complete when the height of C = height of A. That will likely be the case Monday AM at around $61.50. If it peaks there and then breaks back down below the 23.6 fib then that's game over for LVS; wave 3 will have begun. It could also power up rapidly to the 38.2% fib. Since this is a C wave it should do that move quickly. Once it breaks back down below the a wave at 58.75 (not marked above), wave 3 entry is confirmed.
But wait-a-holdit, there Cap-i-tan... what about the fundamentals??!! Are you just going to ignore all of this good news? Look, forward PE is getting smaller and is a "reasonable" 16 (I personally think that is high for such a business but that's not the common wisdom). Yes, price to sales is high and to be fair, price to book is very high. But this company is profitable and while revenue was reduced 6.6[6]% last quarter, EBITDA was still a mighty $5.1 bn and quarterly earnings growth looks rosy. On the divvy side, we have WOW, a 4.6% divvy which has grown YOY and which is only eating up 57% of the profits. I didn't show it but it has 3.15bn in cash and 9.94 bn in debt. I've seen worse before!
There is absolutely no reason to short this company! One should buy with both hands, right? And so now you know why I am posting about this company right now. The shares will collapse, nobody will have seen it coming and the fundamentals will somehow become irrelevant. If this happens and I am confident that it will, hopefully even more people will come to understand the the whole stock market is nothing but a scam, that the true fundamentals are unknown and unknowable, and that price action as interpreted by EW is the only reasonably reliable future price movement indicator that exists on planet Earth.
Note: the breakdown might not be wave 3 yet. It might only be 5 of 1. That is not my primary count but due mainly to the possibility of a W3 down to the $50 level, the current wave might just be 4 of 1 and not wave 2. So let this possibility help guide your actions should you decide to take any. But in any case the trading action should turn negative within a week.
Friday, February 13, 2015
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