Wednesday, March 25, 2015

[AAPL] update

Backlink.  Below is the model from that post.

Below is current actual.  The real panic begins when the blue circle is breached to the downside.

Just looking at this zoom in, the target is at least the level of the prior 4th shown above but if we zoom further out we see that the actual target is a good deal lower.  How many people do you know that are currently predicting that AAPL shares will trade down into the $55 range in a couple years (by the end of 2017, latest)?  I think the answer is approximately zero.  Everyone is bullish, AAPL Kant Miss, etc.  They all say that the "fundamentals" demand a higher share price.

Of course I say the true fundamentals are unknown by man and in fact unknowable.  How can any man predict a confluence of waves in the ocean that will predict a rogue wave?  There are simply too many variables, too many unknown unknowns, and too little knowledge about how seemingly small variables can actually turn into controlling events resulting in "black swan" or "fat tail" events.

So below is my high level model for AAPL: we are at the start of a large 3 wave decline down to $55.

Yes, I said it, $55.  So where did I get that number from (as opposed to $56 or $54)?  The EW retracement targets the level of the prior 4th which is, as you can see from the very zoomed in chart below, exactly $55.  Just another coincidence perhaps except that I don't believe in them.

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