Friday, March 27, 2015

[$TNX.X] update

The chart from the backlink is shown below.

Zooming in to just the sell of that began in early march - what I count as red 2, we see that the expected pullback did begin to occur after having kissed the 38.2 from below.  In that post I modeled the pullback to be to the 50 fib but now that I see the wave form I think the pullback to the 38.2 was must wave A and now working on wave B, soon to fall through to wave C which would also fill the gap.  That would be a good speculative buy point of whatever interest rate tracking ETF you might be using.  Such a purchase should have pretty tight stops.  In this case, clearly $18.60 would bust the model but I don't even think it is needed to take that much risk.  Just wait for 5 wave down from the end of B (which should reveal itself soon) and then use 20 cents below as a stop (probably $18.80).  20 cents on $20 is a very tight stop loss of only 1 percent. 

The opportunity for high reward while taking relatively little risk is what sets Elliott waves apart from every other trading system I have ever used.

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